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Iteration 9 โ€” FINAL: Full-Grid Scale Verdict CONDITIONAL

Run complete: 384/384 cells (21 crypto + 19 forex symร—thr ร— 10 regime slices), 112.2 min, 0 failures, RSS flat 251 MB, read-only. 3,344 crypto + 24,122 forex featureร—cell evaluations + cross-regime ICP.

Scorecard (pooled + per-combo replication)

MetricCrypto (21 combos)Forex (19 combos)Reading
adv_aucUSEFUL โ€” 21/21USEFUL โ€” 19/19โญ the fully-validated cross-substrate forward gate (KS vs null 0.53/0.34)
wold_Rnear-miss (null-collapse KS 0.90 + regime โœ“; anchor/threshold โœ—)USEFUL โ€” 19/19forex-validated
granger_echo_pUSEFUL โ€” 21/21DEGENERATE โ€” harness defect (crypto-named active set)crypto-validated
redundancyINPUT-ONLY (rank-corr is permutation-invariant โ†’ null gate inapplicable). Anchors read 1.0 on every combo โœ“the input series
stab_freq6/210/19unreliable โ€” drop or redesign
bootci_wMISCALIBRATEDMISCALIBRATEDrank-derived โ†’ null-invariant
ICP cross-regime91 features โ†’ 0 invariant0 features (same harness defect)see finding
Verdict: CONDITIONAL โ€” recorded without inflation. Strict pre-registered count = 1 cross-substrate USEFUL (PIVOT territory); but two failures are attributable harness defects (forex active-set mapping) and one metric is INPUT-ONLY by construction. Within valid scopes the discriminating scales replicate perfectly (40/40, 19/19, 21/21).

Substantive findings

Named defects โ†’ next iteration

  1. Define the forex active set (fxview column names) โ†’ unlocks granger_echo + ICP on forex.
  2. Drop/redesign stab_freq & bootci_w.
  3. Re-examine wold_R crypto gate thresholds (redundancy ceiling 0.99 compresses the scale).

SSoT findings: audit folder FULL-GRID-SCALE-VERDICT.md + full_grid_aggregate.json + tier_a_scale_spike_v2.py

Campaign: 2026-06-12-forward-orthogonality-matrix-scale-evaluation ยท generated 2026-06-12 09:47:57 local ยท 384/384 cells ยท 112.2 min ยท read-only CH ยท cap 5c/5GB