Iteration 11 โ PROPOSAL: The Campaign's First Status Declarations DRAFT ยท AWAITING OPERATOR REVIEW
What happened in this iteration, in plain words: the campaign did the thing it was built for. With both instruments in the decision rule certified and unexpired (the orthogonality gauge G0 and the newly-admitted regime counter k_v), the loop drafted its first feature status declarations. The rulebook discipline held: the declaration thresholds were derived from already-committed numbers before any feature was assigned (null rate 0.264 from the frozen campaign, the standard ฮฑ and FDR conventions โ the bar came out at "orthogonal in at least 6 of 10 regimes, panel-corrected"). The verdict table is strikingly clean: on the flagship pair, features are either stably redundant or stably orthogonal โ four features clear the CONDITIONAL bar with a perfect 10-of-10 record (and so also carry the STABLE-candidate flag), zero features land in FRAGILE, and twelve fail today's orthogonality test outright. Nothing becomes official until the operator reviews this page.
Preflight (A0)
2026-07-03 14:18 UTC โ load1 2.73 / 32 cores (โค24) ยท no competing nasimubd jobs ยท 21 GiB available ยท clickhouse-server active ยท sidecar active + /health healthy โ ALL PASS. Hermetic run (sha-pinned committed cells, zero ClickHouse), <1 s inside the cap, zero generated values.
Pre-registered declaration rule (fixed before assignment; every constant committed-anchored):
p_base = 0.264 (committed e123_v3 crypto base orthogonality rate) ยท ฮฑ = 0.05 (G3) ยท k* = 6 = min k with P(Binomial(10, 0.264) โฅ k) โค ฮฑ (exact, computed not chosen) ยท BH q = 0.10 (G11) across the 16-feature panel ยท "today" = etf_bull_2024 (latest completed slice).
FAIL-today = not orthogonal today (G0's existing verdict) ยท FRAGILE = orthogonal today, k_v < k* ยท CONDITIONAL = orthogonal today, k_v โฅ k*, BH-significant, regime scope named ยท STABLE-candidate flag = k_v 10/10 (a flag, not a STABLE declaration โ that still requires the full stack + F014).
The draft declarations (Tier-A BTCUSDT@250 ยท expiry: next completed crypto regime slice)
Feature
k_v
binomial p vs base
DRAFT status
Regime scope
STABLE-candidate
aggression_ratio
10/10
3.1e-06 (BH โ)
CONDITIONAL (DRAFT)
all 10 named slices (bear_2018 โ etf_bull_2024)
โ flagged
bar_dispersion_entropy
10/10
3.1e-06 (BH โ)
CONDITIONAL (DRAFT)
all 10 named slices
โ flagged
bar_katz_fd
10/10
3.1e-06 (BH โ)
CONDITIONAL (DRAFT)
all 10 named slices
โ flagged
bar_petrosian_fd
10/10
3.1e-06 (BH โ)
CONDITIONAL (DRAFT)
all 10 named slices
โ flagged
FRAGILE drafts: none โ every feature orthogonal today has a perfect stability record; the verdict is bimodal on this grid (stably redundant OR stably orthogonal). FRAGILE may first appear on other combos or on forex. ยท FAIL-today: 12 features (volume family, OHLC, duration, turnover_imbalance, several bar_*) โ G0's existing verdict, not new declarations; full rows in loop2_first_declarations.json.
Technical record
Item
Value
Consumption rule (frozen ยง5.3)
every matrix in the decision rule ADMITTED + unexpired on crypto: G0 (grounded stack) โ ยท k_v (row 15, expires at next completed crypto slice) โ
16 features with complete 10-slice verdicts on BTCUSDT@250 (of 26 with any data; the JSON lists per-feature coverage)
Honesty note
the 4 CONDITIONAL drafts all have FULL 10/10 scope โ they are conservative assignments of features that are really STABLE-candidates; CONDITIONAL is the strongest status assignable today (STABLE needs F014's identifiability-sharpened falsifier, Frontier #3)
Harness
loop2_first_declarations.py ยท loop2_first_declarations.json โ hermetic, sha-pinned panel, <1 s
Compute / prod impact
zero ClickHouse ยท zero writes outside audit folder + dashboard
โถ Next iteration
Parked decision for the operator; loop continues on the frontier meanwhile.
Your review: approve, amend, or reject the 4 CONDITIONAL drafts above (type it into the loop session; recorded verbatim). Approval stamps the campaign's first official statuses.
Next firing (independent of the review): Frontier #3 โ F014 nonlinear/relaxed ICP, now carrying the iteration-7 identifiability question: is the STABLE ceiling an absence of invariance or an identification limit? Under M5โฒ real-data power designs (no synthetic plants), with the 4 STABLE-candidate flags as its first test subjects. Alternatives you can order instead: full forex grid extension + forex verdict-stability k_v (which would also hunt for the first FRAGILE declarations), or the CTM expiry monitor precondition review (Frontier #4 โ now that promoted-feature candidates exist, its "โฅ1 promoted feature" precondition may soon unlock).
Iteration 11 ยท 2026-07-03 ยท Loop-2 first consumption ยท PROPOSAL (draft, not official) ยท hermetic ยท capped ยท zero synthetic data ยท append-only