| Leg | Result |
|---|---|
| M3 repackaging | CLEAR โ ฯ(k_v, mean redundancy) = โ0.903 (< 0.95; closer to the bar than crypto's โ0.753 โ noted for the expiry review) |
| M4 incremental value | PASS โ ฮAUC +0.0318, CI [+0.0188, +0.0446] ENTIRELY > 0 over baseline 0.877 (clears the bar crypto narrowly missed) |
| M5โฒ(b) direction | PASS โ ฯ = +0.407, CI [+0.317, +0.496], null hi 0.038, n = 2,642 |
| Verdict | ADMIT(forex, 8-window regime grid, FRAGILE/CONDITIONAL boundary readout of G0, expiry: next completed forex regime slice) โ LEDGER row 18 |
Pre-registered rule: p_base = 0.513 (committed forex base rate) ยท ฮฑ = 0.05 ยท k* = 7 of 8 ยท BH q = 0.10 ยท today = live_tail.
| DRAFT status | Count | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| CONDITIONAL | 60 (57 at 8/8, STABLE-flagged) | spread_open/low/close (+q1000), session_london/sydney/tokyo, shannon_entropy_signs_bar, realized_kurtosis/skewness_bar, tail_index_hill_bar, vpin_rolling_mean_bar, zigzag pivot flags, ofi_persistence_ar1_barโฆ |
| FRAGILE โ the campaign's first | 9 | lookback_twap_position (+q1000) k_v=3 ยท twas k_v=3 ยท wald_wolfowitz_z_bar k_v=2 ยท spread_kurtosis k_v=6 ยท spread_skewness k_v=6 ยท ma1_noise_variance_u2_bar k_v=6 |
| FAIL-today | 63 | G0's existing verdict; full rows in forex_verdict_stability_results.json |