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Iteration 13 โ€” Forex k_v ADMITTED ยท The First FRAGILE Declarations ADMIT #2 PROPOSAL #2

What happened, in plain words: the regime counter earned its forex certificate on its own merits (the rulebook forbids importing the crypto one) โ€” and on forex it passed even the test crypto narrowly missed: adding its score to the certified panel measurably improves held-out forecasts (+0.032, entirely positive interval, on 2,642 held-out rows). With the second certificate issued, the loop drafted forex statuses for 132 features under a rule fixed from committed numbers: 60 CONDITIONAL (57 with perfect 8-of-8 records โ€” spread family, session flags, entropy and tail measures, vpin), 9 FRAGILE โ€” the campaign's first ever (features orthogonal today whose record breaks across regimes: the lookback-TWAP family, a runs-test bar, spread shape moments), and 63 failing today outright. Both proposals (4 crypto + 69 forex) now await the operator.

Preflight (A0)

2026-07-03 16:18 UTC โ€” load1 5.64/32c (โ‰ค24) ยท 29 GiB avail ยท CH + sidecar healthy โ†’ ALL PASS. Hermetic (sha-pinned cells, zero ClickHouse), 2.53 min capped, zero generated values.

Admission legs (forex, fresh per ยง5.1)

LegResult
M3 repackagingCLEAR โ€” ฯ(k_v, mean redundancy) = โˆ’0.903 (< 0.95; closer to the bar than crypto's โˆ’0.753 โ€” noted for the expiry review)
M4 incremental valuePASS โ€” ฮ”AUC +0.0318, CI [+0.0188, +0.0446] ENTIRELY > 0 over baseline 0.877 (clears the bar crypto narrowly missed)
M5โ€ฒ(b) directionPASS โ€” ฯ = +0.407, CI [+0.317, +0.496], null hi 0.038, n = 2,642
VerdictADMIT(forex, 8-window regime grid, FRAGILE/CONDITIONAL boundary readout of G0, expiry: next completed forex regime slice) โ€” LEDGER row 18

Draft declarations (Tier-A EURUSD@5 ยท PROPOSAL #2 ยท LEDGER row 19)

Pre-registered rule: p_base = 0.513 (committed forex base rate) ยท ฮฑ = 0.05 ยท k* = 7 of 8 ยท BH q = 0.10 ยท today = live_tail.

DRAFT statusCountExamples
CONDITIONAL60 (57 at 8/8, STABLE-flagged)spread_open/low/close (+q1000), session_london/sydney/tokyo, shannon_entropy_signs_bar, realized_kurtosis/skewness_bar, tail_index_hill_bar, vpin_rolling_mean_bar, zigzag pivot flags, ofi_persistence_ar1_barโ€ฆ
FRAGILE โ€” the campaign's first9lookback_twap_position (+q1000) k_v=3 ยท twas k_v=3 ยท wald_wolfowitz_z_bar k_v=2 ยท spread_kurtosis k_v=6 ยท spread_skewness k_v=6 ยท ma1_noise_variance_u2_bar k_v=6
FAIL-today63G0's existing verdict; full rows in forex_verdict_stability_results.json

โ–ถ Next iteration

Iteration 13 ยท 2026-07-03 ยท ADMIT #2 + PROPOSAL #2 (first FRAGILE drafts) ยท hermetic ยท capped ยท zero synthetic data ยท append-only