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Iteration 23 โ€” Exams v2 + v3: True Anchor Found, a Power Gap Remains CHECKPOINT

In plain words: two more rounds of the entrance exam, two more honest lessons. Round two tried the tolerance idea ("accept anything as regime-stable as the duplicate's own dust") and failed backwards: wrong answers have proportionally smoother residuals than the duplicate's dust, so the tolerance axis doesn't rank correctness at all โ€” and with that, the crypto duplicate is retired as a test case (its 0.0001% imperfection is regime-structured rounding grit). But the campaign owns a genuinely perfect case: the forex duration twins, byte-for-byte identical across 701,424 rows. Round three ran on that true anchor: the instrument never rejects the truth (every duration-containing answer accepted โ€” validity confirmed), but it also fails to reject the wrong answers (they read as "mildly stable" and slip under the bar) โ€” a power shortfall of the simple e-value formula used, not a validity flaw. The candidate stays alive: the source paper provides exactly the stronger (optimal) constructions for this, and that is the next slice.

Preflight (A0): 2026-07-08 10:18 UTC โ€” load1 3.91/32c (โ‰ค24) ยท 22 GiB avail ยท CH + sidecar active โ†’ ALL PASS. Three capped runs total (0.13 + 0.5 min + probe), readonly=2 forex loads, permutations of real rows only.

Results

ExamDesignOutcome
v2 (ฮต-relaxed, crypto anchor)R_S = relative residual heterogeneity; ฮตโ‚€ = the duplicate's own 0.0531FAIL, opposite direction โ€” separation margin 0.0; relative heterogeneity doesn't rank correctness; crypto anchor retired (row 31)
v3 (byte-identical forex twin)target intra_duration_us; anchors incl. duration_us; K=99 permutation e-values, threshold 20E1 โœ“ (truth never rejected โ€” all duration-subsets accepted, e โ‰ค 2.0) ยท E2 โœ— (wrong subsets e = 3.1โ€“15.7, escape rejection) โ†’ power gap of the crude mean-ratio e-form, not invalidity (row 32)

โ–ถ Next iteration

Iteration 23 ยท 2026-07-08 ยท exams v2+v3 (rows 31โ€“32) ยท candidate A alive ยท capped ยท zero synthetic data ยท append-only