โ€บNavigation

Iteration 29 โ€” seqICP Crypto Persistence Role EXCLUDED SCOPED KILL ยท CANDIDATE ALIVE

In plain words: the label-free test took the same two-part crypto exam the last two admitted instruments took: does its reading help predict which features stay orthogonal next regime? The run itself was clean โ€” regime by regime, its invariance flag lights up for a small, sensible set of features, and one (bar_ehlers_increment_asymmetry) stays lit across every late-era regime, quietly corroborating last week's identifier yet again. But the exam result was a miss with an instructive shape: the features the flag lights up for are almost all outside the certified prediction panel's universe โ€” and the one inside it isn't orthogonal at the relevant moments. On the held-out test set the flag never lit at all: a constant reading can't predict anything. One exam part narrowly missed; the other was unmeasurable by construction. Verdict, by the pre-registered rule: the crypto persistence role is excluded โ€” a clean, scoped kill. The candidate itself stays alive: its real claim (working where regime labels are wrong or absent) is decided next, on forex, head-to-head with the reigning identifier.

Preflight (A0): 2026-07-09 โ€” load1 4.51/32c (โ‰ค24) ยท 23 GiB avail ยท CH + sidecar active ยท no heavy jobs โ†’ ALL PASS. One capped run (0.64 min) + one capped diagnostic, hermetic pool + committed sha-pinned cells, permutations of real rows only.

The legs (sealed row-15/18 disjunction)

LegReadoutResult
Candidate columnLeakage-safe expanding block-null seqICP (row-37 standing rule), per-feature n_acc/15 per epoch โ€” effectively a binary invariance flag; 2โ€“8 of 29 features flagged per epochcolumn built cleanly
M4 persistence-panel ฮ”AUCฮ”AUC = +0.0085, CI95 [โˆ’0.0011, +0.0244] โˆ‹ 0FAIL (narrow miss)
M5โ€ฒb directionฯ โ‰ก 0.0 โ€” the column has ZERO variance on all 256 held-out among-orth rowsUNMEASURABLE โ†’ fails the pre-registered criterion by construction
Diagnosis (verify-before-report)Traced to the attach step, not the instrument: test-epoch invariance-rich features (ehlers, cox_stuart, categorical_recurrence, hoeffding) live OUTSIDE the panel's 16-feature universe; the one inside (duration_us) is non-orth at t and filtered. Sparse-support failure.
Verdict (row 38)EXCLUDE(crypto persistence role โ€” zero-support sparsity: the binary invariance flag cannot inform persistence on the admitted panel). Scoped kill; no boneyard row โ€” candidate H-016 remains alive for the forex head-to-head.

Report-only bonus: bar_ehlers_increment_asymmetry flagged invariance-rich in ALL THREE test epochs (ath_2021q4, luna_2022, ftx_2022) โ€” a third consecutive corroboration alongside e-ICP-fp's identified set (rows 34, 37). The STABLE-declaration case for this feature keeps strengthening.

โ–ถ Next iteration

Iteration 29 ยท 2026-07-09 ยท scoped EXCLUDE (row 38) โ€” kills are wins ยท capped ยท zero synthetic data ยท append-only ยท evidence: seqicp_crypto_m4_m5b.py ยท seqicp_crypto_m4_m5b_results.json