bar_ehlers_increment_asymmetry) stays lit across every late-era regime, quietly corroborating last week's identifier yet again. But the exam result was a miss with an instructive shape: the features the flag lights up for are almost all outside the certified prediction panel's universe โ and the one inside it isn't orthogonal at the relevant moments. On the held-out test set the flag never lit at all: a constant reading can't predict anything. One exam part narrowly missed; the other was unmeasurable by construction. Verdict, by the pre-registered rule: the crypto persistence role is excluded โ a clean, scoped kill. The candidate itself stays alive: its real claim (working where regime labels are wrong or absent) is decided next, on forex, head-to-head with the reigning identifier.| Leg | Readout | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Candidate column | Leakage-safe expanding block-null seqICP (row-37 standing rule), per-feature n_acc/15 per epoch โ effectively a binary invariance flag; 2โ8 of 29 features flagged per epoch | column built cleanly |
| M4 persistence-panel ฮAUC | ฮAUC = +0.0085, CI95 [โ0.0011, +0.0244] โ 0 | FAIL (narrow miss) |
| M5โฒb direction | ฯ โก 0.0 โ the column has ZERO variance on all 256 held-out among-orth rows | UNMEASURABLE โ fails the pre-registered criterion by construction |
| Diagnosis (verify-before-report) | Traced to the attach step, not the instrument: test-epoch invariance-rich features (ehlers, cox_stuart, categorical_recurrence, hoeffding) live OUTSIDE the panel's 16-feature universe; the one inside (duration_us) is non-orth at t and filtered. Sparse-support failure. | |
| Verdict (row 38) | EXCLUDE(crypto persistence role โ zero-support sparsity: the binary invariance flag cannot inform persistence on the admitted panel). Scoped kill; no boneyard row โ candidate H-016 remains alive for the forex head-to-head. | |
Report-only bonus: bar_ehlers_increment_asymmetry flagged invariance-rich in ALL THREE test epochs (ath_2021q4, luna_2022, ftx_2022) โ a third consecutive corroboration alongside e-ICP-fp's identified set (rows 34, 37). The STABLE-declaration case for this feature keeps strengthening.