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Iteration 44 โ€” Causal Dantzig M3 CLEAR INFORMATIVE ยท NOT REDUNDANT ยท M4/M5โ€ฒ NEXT

In plain words: the regime-subtraction candidate survived the field test that killed its two predecessors. Turned loose on all 130 features, it did NOT go mute (the last candidate answered "nothing" for everything; this one's readings spread across the whole range โ€” some features can get quite close to a regime-proof relationship, most cannot, a few are far off), and it is NOT an echo of an instrument we already own (its strongest resemblance to any certified reading is 76% โ€” family resemblance, since both study steadiness, but far below our 95% "same instrument" bar). Two hurdles remain before any certificate, and they are the statistical ones: does plugging its readings into our verdict machinery actually improve verdicts on held-out data, and can it detect what it claims to detect at our sample sizes โ€” both tested with the serial-dependence-aware designs this market demands.

Preflight (A0): 2026-07-10 01:45 โ€” load1 2.71/32c falling (load15 5.05) ยท two light claude sessions ยท 27 GiB avail; system swap from an external burst (si trickle, so=0), capped scope swap-banned as always ยท CH + sidecar + kintsugi active โ†’ ALL PASS. Sync: origin/main unchanged. One capped run, 0.47 min, 5 workers, readonly=2 loader, watchdog clean, deterministic algebra over real rows only.

Census results (pre-registered rule in causal_dantzig_m3_census.py)

CheckReadingRuling
Dead-weight check (the EILLS lesson)d_min (min achievable moment-difference defect) is continuous and SPREAD: q10 = 0.075 ยท median = 0.269 ยท q90 = 1.039. sel_size distribution: 0:1 ยท 1:37 ยท 2:40 ยท 3:52. Real per-feature signal โ€” no collapse.DODGED
Oracle-shadow check (the StabReg lesson)Worst |ฯ| = 0.762 (d_min vs e-ICP log_min_e โ€” expected family resemblance between invariance instruments, far under the 0.95 bar). sel_size worst: 0.337. All 14 census-vs-stack correlations below bar.DODGED
Verdict (row 55)M3 CLEAR โ€” checkpoint; M4 (incremental value) + M5โ€ฒ (power/direction) remain, both with the HAC/block serial-dependence designs the dossier flagged

โ–ถ Next iteration

Iteration 44 ยท 2026-07-10 ยท CHECKPOINT (row 55) โ€” M3 CLEAR ยท capped (0.47 min) ยท readonly=2 ยท zero generated values ยท append-only ยท evidence: causal_dantzig_m3_census.py ยท causal_dantzig_m3_census_results.json