Preflight (A0): 2026-07-10 01:45 โ load1 2.71/32c falling (load15 5.05) ยท two light claude sessions ยท 27 GiB avail; system swap from an external burst (si trickle, so=0), capped scope swap-banned as always ยท CH + sidecar + kintsugi active โ ALL PASS. Sync: origin/main unchanged. One capped run, 0.47 min, 5 workers, readonly=2 loader, watchdog clean, deterministic algebra over real rows only.
| Check | Reading | Ruling |
| Dead-weight check (the EILLS lesson) | d_min (min achievable moment-difference defect) is continuous and SPREAD: q10 = 0.075 ยท median = 0.269 ยท q90 = 1.039. sel_size distribution: 0:1 ยท 1:37 ยท 2:40 ยท 3:52. Real per-feature signal โ no collapse. | DODGED |
| Oracle-shadow check (the StabReg lesson) | Worst |ฯ| = 0.762 (d_min vs e-ICP log_min_e โ expected family resemblance between invariance instruments, far under the 0.95 bar). sel_size worst: 0.337. All 14 census-vs-stack correlations below bar. | DODGED |
| Verdict (row 55) | M3 CLEAR โ checkpoint; M4 (incremental value) + M5โฒ (power/direction) remain, both with the HAC/block serial-dependence designs the dossier flagged |
Iteration 44 ยท 2026-07-10 ยท CHECKPOINT (row 55) โ M3 CLEAR ยท capped (0.47 min) ยท readonly=2 ยท zero generated values ยท append-only ยท evidence: causal_dantzig_m3_census.py ยท causal_dantzig_m3_census_results.json