Preflight (A0): 2026-07-10 02:05 โ load1 2.96/32c (โค24) ยท two light claude sessions ยท 37 GiB avail (si trickle/so=0, scope swap-banned) ยท CH + sidecar + kintsugi active โ ALL PASS. Sync: origin/main unchanged. One capped run, 3.02 min, readonly=2 loader; candidate values deterministic; inference = the sealed apparatus' pairing-null + block bootstrap (real-value shuffles per ยง0).
| Leg | Reading | Ruling |
| Leakage-safe candidate column | Expanding cd closeness = โd_min over FX_ORDER windows 0..t inclusive (the k_v vrate convention); sessions excluded as leak-prone; exam machinery verbatim | SEALED CONVENTION |
| M4 held-out incremental value | ฮAUC = +0.00727, CI95 [+0.00335, +0.01154] โ entirely positive AND fully outside the pairing-null band [โ0.0064, +0.0004]; baseline 0.8774 โ 0.8846 on 2,642 held-out transitions; max |ฯ| vs base gates 0.228 (not a repackaging) | PASS |
| M5โฒb direction | ฯ(cd, keeps-orthogonality) = +0.1255, combo-block bootstrap CI [+0.0925, +0.1538] > 0, shuffle-null 97.5th pct 0.0419 โ far clear (n = 2,393) | PASS |
| Decision rule note | The iter-44 steering said "clear both"; the frozen forex precedent (row-13 admit line, rows-34/35 sealed disjunction) is M4 OR M5โฒb โ followed and recorded. Moot: both passed. | RECORDED |
| Discovery note (not gated) | On forex, CD-closer-to-invariant features are MORE likely to keep orthogonality (+0.126) โ the mirror image of the iter-9 crypto inverted-signal finding; logged for the regime-lens question | LOGGED |
| Verdict (row 56) | ADMIT(forex, 8-window EURUSD@5 regime grid, role = hidden-confounder-tolerant moment-difference invariance meter โ d_min readout, expiry = next completed forex regime slice) โ ADMIT #9; full trail rows 54 โ 55 โ 56 (exam 15-orders separation, zero dials ยท M3 informative/non-redundant ยท finale both legs) |
Iteration 45 ยท 2026-07-10 ยท ADMIT #9 (row 56) ยท capped (3.02 min) ยท readonly=2 ยท zero generated values ยท append-only ยท evidence: causal_dantzig_m4_m5b.py ยท causal_dantzig_m4_m5b_results.json