Preflight (A0): 2026-07-10 03:25 โ load1 3.69/32c (โค24) ยท one 1-core external python job (under bar) ยท 36 GiB avail, si/so=0 ยท CH + sidecar + kintsugi active โ ALL PASS. Sync: origin/main unchanged. One capped run, 0.44 min, readonly=2 loader, deterministic algebra, real rows only.
| Check | Reading | Ruling |
| Split-phase stability (the mechanism's one free choice) | ui_n_acc phase correlation 0.891 โ (bar 0.90) ยท ui_log_min_T 0.93 โ. Fragility is real, not knife-edge: 15/130 features change accepted-counts between phases โ incl. total inversions 8โ0 (churn_run_count_q1000, effective_short_entry_bps). The split-LRT "split hedge" instability, now measured on this substrate. | RULE 1 FIRES |
| Oracle-shadow attack (the row-59 named danger) | Worst |ฯ| = 0.732 (ui_log_min_T vs eicp_log_min_e) โ the likelihood-ratio engine is genuinely distinct from the admitted permutation oracle. The named danger did NOT materialize. | DID NOT LAND โ recorded |
| Degeneracy | ui_n_acc spread: 81ร0 ยท 39ร8 ยท 10 middle; ui_log_min_T q10/50/90 = โ1836 / 165 / 9897 โ informative readouts | not degenerate |
| Verdict (row 60) | EXCLUDE(split-fragile at census scale โ phase correlation 0.891 < 0.90 on ui_n_acc; single-feature verdicts invert 8โ0 across phases) โ BONEYARD, re-proposal path on record: crossfit/subsample-AVERAGED split-LRT (a mean of e-values is an e-value โ the split choice integrates out) = a new admissible candidate |
Iteration 49 ยท 2026-07-10 ยท EXCLUDE (row 60, BONEYARD +1) โ kills are wins ยท capped (0.44 min) ยท readonly=2 ยท zero generated values ยท append-only ยท evidence: universal_inference_m3_census.py ยท universal_inference_m3_census_results.json