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Iteration 65 โ€” H-062 W-DRO PARKED with a PROPOSAL CERTIFICATE VOID ON DEPENDENT DATA ยท NO COMPUTE SPENT

In plain words: the next candidate's entire selling point is a NUMBER with a guarantee: "your conclusion survives this much distribution shift, with this confidence." But the guarantee's fine print assumes independent samples โ€” and market bars are anything but independent: on our data the guaranteed radius could be wrong by a large factor, which makes the number exactly the kind of confident-but-unbacked reading this campaign exists to keep off the shelf. Examining the guarantee-less version instead would quietly turn the candidate into yet another loss-spread readout โ€” the family we just executed three of โ€” a foregone kill that tests nothing the candidate actually claims. So the honest move is neither: the candidate is PARKED, with a written proposal spelling out exactly what a valid exam requires (a dependence-aware recalibration of the radius with a derived block length, plus a coverage check against our eight real regime shifts), and a re-harvest lead filed for dependence-robust variants of the method that exist in the literature. Zero compute was spent on a question that arithmetic already answers. The batch's final candidate is next.

Preflight (A0): 2026-07-10 12:06 โ€” load1 6.48/32c (โ‰ค24) ยท 27 GiB avail ยท CH + sidecar + kintsugi active โ†’ ALL PASS. Sync: origin/main unchanged. Docs-only firing โ€” ZERO compute; the ruling is grounded in the dossier's own M2 flag and the frozen trust-anchor doctrine.

The ruling (the rule-3d PROPOSAL/park pattern)

QuestionAnalysisRuling
Is the candidate's trust anchor valid here?The certificate radius ฮต_n(ฮด) assumes IID concentration; serial dependence shrinks effective n by the mixing time โ€” the radius can be off by a large factor. The dossier itself: "finite-sample guarantees assume IID sampling โ†’ block-resampled radius calibration." A gauge whose guarantee is void cannot anchor anything (the campaign's M1 doctrine).NOT YET
Why not exam the guarantee-less margin?Worst-case-loss-over-an-ฮต-ball without the certificate = a smoothed loss-functional readout โ€” the executed loss-spread family's territory (rows 69/70/72): a foregone fate-transfer that tests nothing the candidate claims.DECLINED โ€” predictable kill of a strawman
The PROPOSAL (what a valid exam requires)(1) Stationary/block-bootstrap radius calibration with a DERIVED block length โ€” the NW-lag derivation pattern (row 62) is the template; (2) certificate-coverage check against the 8 real regime-shift magnitudes of the FX window grid; (3) then the standard twin exam on the certified construction.PUBLISHED
Go conditionsOperator direction to build (1)โ€“(2) as a dedicated frontier item, OR a dependence-robust W-DRO variant harvested (re-harvest lead filed for the harvest campaign's next sweep).PARKED (row 76)

โ–ถ Next iteration

Iteration 65 ยท 2026-07-10 ยท PARKED with PROPOSAL (row 76) ยท docs-only, zero compute ยท append-only ยท grounding: harvest CANDIDATE-CATALOG H-062 row ยท the frozen M1 trust-anchor doctrine ยท rows 69/70/72 (the declined shortcut's fate)