Preflight (A0): 2026-07-10 17:05 โ load1 4.22/32c (steady) ยท no heavy nasimubd jobs ยท 26 GiB avail, si/soโ0 ยท all four services active โ ALL PASS. Sync: main up-to-date, worktree 0 behind. One capped run (8.35 min, era attack inline), readonly=2 loader.
| Leg | Reading | Ruling |
| M4 held-out lift (frozen: CI95 low > 0) | ฮAUC +0.00180, CI95 [+0.00058, +0.00288] โ entirely positive ยท BEYOND the pairing-null band at 4.0ร (null 97.5th: 0.00045) ยท 3.2ร certificate #13's lift ยท n_tst 2,642 | PASS โ clean |
| M5โฒb direction | ฯ = โ0.143, CI [โ0.178, โ0.106] โ significantly negative (one-sided rule โ fail); third distributional meter with this direction (calgap โ0.159 ยท MMD โ0.155 ยท W1 โ0.143) โ mechanism datum #6 | FAIL (informative) |
| Frozen disjunction | M4 leg satisfied | ADMIT |
| Era attack (inline โ row-70 law, row-80 disclosure standard) | Early ฮAUC +0.00384 (CI entirely positive) ยท late +0.00084 (positive, CI spans 0) โ no flip; early-concentration matches #13's profile (a distributional-lift pattern, now ร2) | ERA-STABLE |
| Dial audit | Parameter-free column (no bandwidth, no burn-in โ nothing to keep predictable); w1_exact verified against scipy + closed form (row 85) | ZERO DIALS |
| Verdict (row 86) | ADMIT(forex, 8-window EURUSD@5 regime grid, role = transport-geometry regime-heterogeneity meter โ the tail-mass-weighted distance channel, expiry = next completed forex regime slice) โ certificate #14, gate slots 20 โ 21 |
Iteration 75 ยท 2026-07-10 ยท VERDICT (row 86) โ ADMIT #14 ยท gate slots 21 ยท capped (8.35 min) ยท readonly=2 ยท zero generated values ยท append-only ยท evidence: wasserstein_m4_m5b.py ยท wasserstein_m4_m5b_results.json