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Iteration 75 โ€” ADMIT #14: the Wasserstein Meter CERTIFICATE #14 ยท BEYOND-NULL 4.0ร— ยท 21 GATE SLOTS

In plain words: the transport-geometry meter โ€” which weights how far probability mass must MOVE between regimes, so tail events cost more โ€” passed its final held-out test with the clean margins its kernel cousin lacked. Its forecast improvement is not just statistically positive: it is four times larger than anything random re-pairing produces (certificate #13's improvement sat INSIDE that noise band), and 3.2 times the size of #13's. The era check ran in the same breath (now standard procedure): the improvement holds in both halves of the held-out period, no sign flip, stronger early โ€” the same profile #13 showed, now seen twice and flagged as a pattern. Its direction reading is the THIRD distributional meter to say the same thing: features whose behavior shifts most across regimes tend to LOSE their edge โ€” six data points now behind the both-extremes-lose mechanism. And a pointed note for the operator's pending question about raising the admission bar: under the stricter bar being considered, #13 would have failed exactly where this one passes.

Preflight (A0): 2026-07-10 17:05 โ€” load1 4.22/32c (steady) ยท no heavy nasimubd jobs ยท 26 GiB avail, si/soโ‰ˆ0 ยท all four services active โ†’ ALL PASS. Sync: main up-to-date, worktree 0 behind. One capped run (8.35 min, era attack inline), readonly=2 loader.

Finale on the sealed apparatus, era attack inline (wasserstein_m4_m5b.py)

LegReadingRuling
M4 held-out lift (frozen: CI95 low > 0)ฮ”AUC +0.00180, CI95 [+0.00058, +0.00288] โ€” entirely positive ยท BEYOND the pairing-null band at 4.0ร— (null 97.5th: 0.00045) ยท 3.2ร— certificate #13's lift ยท n_tst 2,642PASS โ€” clean
M5โ€ฒb directionฯ = โˆ’0.143, CI [โˆ’0.178, โˆ’0.106] โ€” significantly negative (one-sided rule โ‡’ fail); third distributional meter with this direction (calgap โˆ’0.159 ยท MMD โˆ’0.155 ยท W1 โˆ’0.143) โ€” mechanism datum #6FAIL (informative)
Frozen disjunctionM4 leg satisfiedADMIT
Era attack (inline โ€” row-70 law, row-80 disclosure standard)Early ฮ”AUC +0.00384 (CI entirely positive) ยท late +0.00084 (positive, CI spans 0) โ€” no flip; early-concentration matches #13's profile (a distributional-lift pattern, now ร—2)ERA-STABLE
Dial auditParameter-free column (no bandwidth, no burn-in โ€” nothing to keep predictable); w1_exact verified against scipy + closed form (row 85)ZERO DIALS
Verdict (row 86)ADMIT(forex, 8-window EURUSD@5 regime grid, role = transport-geometry regime-heterogeneity meter โ€” the tail-mass-weighted distance channel, expiry = next completed forex regime slice) โ€” certificate #14, gate slots 20 โ†’ 21
For the operator's M4-bar deliberation (row 80): under the stricter beyond-null-band requirement being considered, certificate #13 (MMD, inside-band 0.94ร—) would have FAILED exactly where #14 (W1, 4.0ร—) passes โ€” despite their census readouts correlating at 0.908. The transport geometry captures the boundary signal better in held-out lift. If the bar is raised, the natural consequence is #13's demotion to the boneyard with #14 as the boundary's distance instrument โ€” a one-instrument-per-geometry stack either way.

โ–ถ Next iteration

Iteration 75 ยท 2026-07-10 ยท VERDICT (row 86) โ€” ADMIT #14 ยท gate slots 21 ยท capped (8.35 min) ยท readonly=2 ยท zero generated values ยท append-only ยท evidence: wasserstein_m4_m5b.py ยท wasserstein_m4_m5b_results.json