โ€บNavigation

Iteration 82 โ€” H-044 Congruence EXCLUDED KILL #24 ยท THE ORDERING LEG'S FIRST KILL ยท EXAM KILL

In plain words: this candidate reads whether the FACTOR STRUCTURE of the market โ€” which hidden themes drive which features โ€” rearranges between regimes. It became the first candidate since the distance cousins to clear the door law: its regime-to-regime drift reading genuinely exceeded what re-shuffled blocks produce. Then a subtler control exposed what that clearance was made of. The exam also asked: does the factor structure measured on two halves of the SAME regime agree better than structures from two DIFFERENT regimes? It must โ€” otherwise the "drift" is just measurement wobble. It did not: same-regime halves disagreed MORE (agreement 0.55โ€“0.59) than different regimes did (0.63). With 125 features, ~1500 rows, and 28 factors, the loading estimates are so noisy that estimation variance โ€” not regime structure โ€” dominates the reading. The honest nuance is on the record (halves have half the data, by design โ€” but several campaign windows are smaller than these halves, so a reading that can't survive half-window noise can't serve the boundary). The boneyard prescribes the fix for any successor: a variance-controlled loading estimator, and the ordering leg first.

Preflight (A0): 2026-07-10 19:25 โ€” load1 3.85/32c (steady) ยท no heavy nasimubd jobs ยท 36 GiB avail, si/so=0 ยท all four services active โ†’ ALL PASS. Sync: main up-to-date, worktree 0 behind. One capped run (0.35 min), readonly=2 loader, block re-splits of real values (03c).

Exam results (congruence_exam.py โ€” clean-room, pool 125 features, Kaiser r=28)

LegReadingRuling
E1 โ€” certain legsSubstitution pipeline bit-equal ยท twin-in-panel ฯ†(twin, dur) = 1.0 within the stated 10โปโธ eigen-numerics tolerance (honest ฮต, no bit-claim)PASS
E2 โ€” the door lawBetween-regime drift 0.373 vs block re-split null 0.276 (1.35ร—) โ€” the first door-law clearance since the distance cousinsPASS (later evacuated)
E3 โ€” the ordering leg (THE KILL)Within-regime split-half congruence: covid 0.587 ยท midcycle 0.552 โ€” both LOWER than between-regime congruence 0.627: same-regime halves disagree more than different regimes doFAIL
MechanismLoading-estimation variance dominates at panel scale โ€” 1โˆ’ฯ† is a noise gauge; the E2 clearance measured sample-scale noise geometry, not regime structure (F014 family, estimation-variance edition)STRUCTURAL
Verdict (row 93)EXCLUDE(loading-estimation noise dominates the drift reading) โ€” KILL #24, BONEYARD #39

โ–ถ Next iteration

Iteration 82 ยท 2026-07-10 ยท VERDICT (row 93) โ€” EXCLUDE ยท kill #24 ยท boneyard #39 ยท capped (0.35 min) ยท readonly=2 ยท zero generated values ยท zero code reuse ยท append-only ยท evidence: congruence_exam.py ยท congruence_exam_results.json