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Iteration 91 โ€” the SPAโ€“MCS Pair Splits H-095 MCS PASSES ยท H-094 SPA KILLED (#30) ยท k_v COUNT FIGHT NEXT

In plain words: two set-minded candidates entered together and split. The Model Confidence Set โ€” which answers "in WHICH regimes is a feature's advantage indistinguishable from its best?" with a statistically guaranteed set โ€” passed all three doors: the byte-twin identity held; its coverage guarantee was verified on twenty-five worlds where all regimes are equal by construction (it wrongly shrank the set in only two, inside the allowance); and on the real canonical pair it RESOLVED structure, scoping out exactly one of eight regimes as genuinely inferior. That is set-valued CONDITIONAL scoping working at the door โ€” the first candidate of the batch to demonstrate the boundary's native question. Its sibling โ€” the snooping-corrected "is the best regime really superior?" test โ€” missed its own bar (p = 0.07 against 0.05) on the very pair where regime structure is certified at fifteen-million-to-one, and died by the blindness rule; the miss is marginal and the boneyard says so, but MCS covers the scoping need, so the revisit is low-priority. Next comes the fight that will decide MCS's fate: its per-feature reading is a COUNT of regimes โ€” and the certified incumbent k_v is also a count of regimes. Same grammar, possibly same information: the census will say.

Preflight (A0): 2026-07-10 22:46 โ€” load1 5.45/32c (flat vs load15 4.83) ยท no heavy nasimubd CPU jobs (external disk reads noted) ยท 31 GiB avail, si/soโ‰ˆ0 ยท all four services active โ†’ ALL PASS. Sync: main up-to-date, worktree 0 behind. One capped run (0.43 min), readonly=2 loader, stationary bootstrap + shifts of real values (03c-clean).

Grouped exam (spa_mcs_exam.py โ€” raw-moment statistics, the row-98 bar built in)

LegH-095 MCSH-094 SPA
E1 โ€” twin-pair identityPer-window differentials bit-identical through the shared path โ‡’ identical sets / p-values
E2 โ€” coverage on 25 all-true-nulls worldsEliminations in 2/25 = 8% โ‰ค 13.7% โ€” the 1โˆ’ฮฑ guarantee respected on dependent data(not its leg)
E3 โ€” boundary resolution (intensity; CPA-certified structure at 6.7ร—10โปโธ)|MCS| = 7 of 8 โ€” one regime scoped out as significantly inferior; the set-valued reading resolves real structurep = 0.07 > 0.05 โ€” cannot clear its own bar where structure is known present (marginal; K-granularity ~0.01 noted)
Verdicts (row 102)EXAM PASS โ€” M3 nextEXCLUDE(marginal blindness) โ€” KILL #30, BONEYARD #45 (revisit low-priority: MCS covers the scoping need)

โ–ถ Next iteration

Iteration 91 ยท 2026-07-10 ยท VERDICT (row 102) โ€” H-095 EXAM PASS ยท H-094 EXCLUDE (kill #30, boneyard #45) ยท capped (0.43 min) ยท readonly=2 ยท zero generated values ยท append-only ยท evidence: spa_mcs_exam.py ยท spa_mcs_exam_results.json