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Iteration 14 โ€” First FRAGILEโ†”CONDITIONAL harvest 5 HARVESTED ยท 72 TOTAL MRP LEAD RESOLVED ยท ARXIV OUTAGE RECORDED

2026-07-07 ยท fourteenth firing ยท ledger row 19 ยท harvest batch F9+13+14+19-01 ยท campaign branch loop/matrix-harvest-campaign

In plain words: first dedicated haul for the boundary that separates fragile features (work in a couple of regimes, luck) from conditional ones (reliably work in named regimes). Five instruments entered. Two measure how consistently a feature keeps getting selected โ€” including the correlation-aware adjustment that fixes the exact bias that helped doom an earlier boneyarded method (unadjusted measures punish a model for swapping between two near-identical features, which is not real instability). One compares feature rankings across walk-forward steps with extra weight at the top, answering the house incumbent's design bar explicitly: it complements the exact flip-counter, it doesn't clone it. One reads WHERE in the distribution dependence lives โ€” center versus tails โ€” naming a failure mode the global measures are blind to. And yesterday's web-search lead paid off: Minimum Regime Performance resolved to a real 2025 Journal of Portfolio Management paper via the citation registry, entering as the worst-regime aggregation angle. Also on the record: the arXiv channel was down the whole firing (503s), so three candidates wait rather than enter unverified โ€” the no-hearsay rule doesn't take outages as excuses. The branch also absorbed a new main-side audit (feature-realness) via the now-routine rebase.

The five

idInstrumentFamilyWhat it adds to FRAGILEโ†”COND
H-068stabm stability suite (CRAN, LGPL-3)9selection-set similarity across runs โ€” the boundary's bread-and-butter, block-resampled
H-069Similarity-adjusted stability (stabm)9the correlated-features fix โ€” swaps among near-twins stop counting as instability
H-070Rank-biased overlap (PyPI, MIT)19top-weighted ranking stability โ€” complements (not clones) the k_v flip-counter
H-071Local Gaussian correlation (CRAN lg)13WHERE dependence lives โ€” center-vs-tails flips invisible to global measures
H-072Minimum Regime Performance (JPM 2025)14worst-regime aggregation; no code anywhere but construction trivially low โ€” stated

Pending on the arXiv outage: MMD two-sample, Nogueira-direct, the LGC regime-test paper. Lead recorded: Sechidisโ€“Brown correlation-aware variant.

Coverage counters after this firing

BoundaryMinimumVerifiedScreened-passFedStarvation
STABLE10033232367
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL60110049
CONDITIONAL-scoping4030037
FAIL4013101027
EXPIRY40105030
cross-cutting2020018
Total300723833228

โ–ถ Next iteration

Machine-readable record: ledger row 19 + catalog ยงF9+13+14+19-01. WebSearch: blocked this firing; arXiv 503 outage recorded. Pages are append-only.