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Iteration 16 โ€” FRAGILEโ†”COND screen S-05 12 PASS ยท 2 OUT B-04 TRIGGERED โ€” THE LAB'S HUNGRIEST BOUNDARY

2026-07-08 ยท sixteenth firing ยท ledger row 21 ยท screening batch S-05 ยท campaign branch loop/matrix-harvest-campaign

In plain words: the boundary that separates lucky features from reliably-conditional ones had its interrogation โ€” and this is the boundary the certification lab's own priority table marks as hungriest (it has exactly one trusted instrument there today). The screen enforced a sharp principle: evidence must be about a FEATURE, not about the whole panel. A verdict machine needs to say "feature X held in 7 of 10 regimes," not "the market got weirder." Twelve instruments cleared that bar: distribution-difference tests in three geometries, selection-stability measures (with the correlated-features fix), rank-trajectory overlap, region-resolved dependence with its significance test, recurrence coupling, sequential betting evidence, per-feature factor-loading congruence, and the worst-regime floor. Two elegant classics went out on exactly that principle โ€” covariance shrinkage intensity and whole-matrix similarity are honest diagnostics of regime instability, but they describe the panel, not any feature; both are retained as context, neither as gauge. Twelve passers means the fourth handoff batch fires next โ€” into the lab's most-starved slot.

The principle this screen produced

 The per-feature bar for FRAGILEโ†”CONDITIONAL evidence:
   "feature X held in k of N named regimes"     โ† moves a status    โ†’ PASS
   "the panel's covariance conditioning moved"  โ† describes weather โ†’ OUT (context)
 A status machine grades features, not climates. Panel scalars stay
 in the toolbox as context โ€” they never gate.

Results (14 screened, default OUT)

idInstrumentVerdictFlag
H-038Energy distancePASSdistance-cousins ร—3
H-043Ledoitโ€“Wolf shrinkage intensityOUT (OFF-GOAL)panel scalar โ€” context retention
H-044Tucker's ฯ† (per-feature loadings)PASSconstructed anchor
H-045RV coefficientOUT (OFF-GOAL)whole-matrix scalar โ€” context retention
H-049CRQAPASSโ€”
H-056Two-sample by bettingPASSโ€”
H-068/069stabm suite + adjusted measuresPASS ร—2stability pair; constructed known-answers
H-070Rank-biased overlapPASSk_v design-bar flag travels
H-071/074LGC measure + regime testPASS ร—2LGC pair
H-072Minimum Regime PerformancePASSborderline; COVERED-PARTIAL vs k_v
H-073MMD two-samplePASSdistance-cousins ร—3
H-075Wasserstein two-samplePASSdistance-cousins ร—3

Coverage counters after this firing

BoundaryMinimumVerifiedScreened-passFed
STABLE100332323
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL601412 (pending)0
CONDITIONAL-scoping40300
FAIL40131010
EXPIRY401050
cross-cutting20300
Total300765033

โ–ถ Next iteration

Machine-readable record: ledger row 21 + catalog ยงS-05. WebSearch: partial (links then filter-cut; 1 lead parked). Pages are append-only.