In plain words: a housekeeping firing that pays compound interest. First, the campaign's oldest debt is cleared: four instruments had sat unscreenable since the very first day because their papers were never formally resolved โ the no-hearsay rule held them at the door for fourteen iterations. All four citations resolved today (adaptive conformal prediction, the original Bayesian changepoint paper from 2007, the discriminative drift detector, the drift-adaptive ensemble), unlocking the EXPIRY boundary's path to its first handoff batch. Second, the invisible infrastructure got its citations: nearly every instrument in this catalog says "needs a dependence-aware correction" โ the two standard ways of doing that (the 1987 analytic variance fix and the 2010 multiplier bootstrap) are now catalogued with sources and implementations, alongside the standard offline changepoint segmenter (an actively maintained library, distinguished on the record from the parametric test the lab boneyarded). One small honesty note: the multiplier bootstrap's citation was first attempted with a wrong identifier from memory โ the failure and the recovery are both on the ledger. The web-search channel answered a library-phrased query and contributed five leads.
The debt clearance
Scaffold day (July 4): H-011 ACI ยท H-012 BOCPD ยท H-013 D3 ยท H-014 PWPAE
entered with checked CODE but unresolved PAPERS
โ "provenance completion pending" โ unscreenable
14 iterations later: all four primary sources resolved (arXiv ร3, Crossref ร1)
โ screenable at last โ EXPIRY cohort now 5 + 5 prior passers
โ screen S-06 could reach 10 โ B-05 unlocked
New rows
id
Instrument
Boundary
What it adds
H-077
NeweyโWest HAC (statsmodels)
cross-cutting
the analytic backbone for every "HAC correction needed" note in the catalog
H-078
Dependent wild bootstrap (Shao 2010)
cross-cutting
multiplier-based null without block-boundary artifacts; no package โ 10-line construction stated
H-079
PELT (ruptures, BSD-2, active 2026)
EXPIRY
exact offline decay dating โ the retrospective complement to the online detectors; NOT the boneyarded parametric Chow
Coverage counters after this firing
Boundary
Minimum
Verified
Screened-pass
Fed
STABLE
100
33
23
23
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL
60
14
12
12
CONDITIONAL-scoping
40
3
0
0
FAIL
40
13
10
10
EXPIRY
40
11
5 (+5 newly screenable)
0
cross-cutting
20
5
0
0
Total
300
79
50
45
โถ Next iteration
Iteration 19 = EXPIRY screen S-06 (the 5 newly screenable: H-011 ACI, H-012 BOCPD, H-013 D3, H-014 PWPAE, H-079 PELT). Watch-points from the catalog rows: H-013 carries a HIGH G5-collision risk (its own row predicts an M3 kill unless a distinct guarantee is named โ the screen may take it out as DUPLICATE-ON-PAPER), and H-011 must name a guarantee beyond the stack's G7 conformal band. Every passer joins the 5 prior EXPIRY passers; reaching 10 total triggers feed batch B-05.
Steering point: no directive = S-06 next firing. Directives are ledger-recorded verbatim before taking effect.