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Iteration 18 โ€” Provenance debt cleared 4 CITATIONS RESOLVED ยท 3 ROWS ยท 79 TOTAL B-05 WITHIN REACH

2026-07-08 ยท eighteenth firing ยท ledger row 23 ยท P-01 + harvest F10+5-01 ยท campaign branch loop/matrix-harvest-campaign

In plain words: a housekeeping firing that pays compound interest. First, the campaign's oldest debt is cleared: four instruments had sat unscreenable since the very first day because their papers were never formally resolved โ€” the no-hearsay rule held them at the door for fourteen iterations. All four citations resolved today (adaptive conformal prediction, the original Bayesian changepoint paper from 2007, the discriminative drift detector, the drift-adaptive ensemble), unlocking the EXPIRY boundary's path to its first handoff batch. Second, the invisible infrastructure got its citations: nearly every instrument in this catalog says "needs a dependence-aware correction" โ€” the two standard ways of doing that (the 1987 analytic variance fix and the 2010 multiplier bootstrap) are now catalogued with sources and implementations, alongside the standard offline changepoint segmenter (an actively maintained library, distinguished on the record from the parametric test the lab boneyarded). One small honesty note: the multiplier bootstrap's citation was first attempted with a wrong identifier from memory โ€” the failure and the recovery are both on the ledger. The web-search channel answered a library-phrased query and contributed five leads.

The debt clearance

 Scaffold day (July 4):  H-011 ACI ยท H-012 BOCPD ยท H-013 D3 ยท H-014 PWPAE
                         entered with checked CODE but unresolved PAPERS
                         โ†’ "provenance completion pending" โ†’ unscreenable
 14 iterations later:    all four primary sources resolved (arXiv ร—3, Crossref ร—1)
                         โ†’ screenable at last โ†’ EXPIRY cohort now 5 + 5 prior passers
                         โ†’ screen S-06 could reach 10 โ†’ B-05 unlocked

New rows

idInstrumentBoundaryWhat it adds
H-077Neweyโ€“West HAC (statsmodels)cross-cuttingthe analytic backbone for every "HAC correction needed" note in the catalog
H-078Dependent wild bootstrap (Shao 2010)cross-cuttingmultiplier-based null without block-boundary artifacts; no package โ€” 10-line construction stated
H-079PELT (ruptures, BSD-2, active 2026)EXPIRYexact offline decay dating โ€” the retrospective complement to the online detectors; NOT the boneyarded parametric Chow

Coverage counters after this firing

BoundaryMinimumVerifiedScreened-passFed
STABLE100332323
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL60141212
CONDITIONAL-scoping40300
FAIL40131010
EXPIRY40115 (+5 newly screenable)0
cross-cutting20500
Total300795045

โ–ถ Next iteration

Machine-readable record: ledger row 23 + catalog ยงP-01+F10+5-01 + taxonomy iter-18 leads. WebSearch: answered (library-phrased). Pages are append-only.