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Iteration 20 โ€” EXPIRY refill, native-guarantee bar 5 HARVESTED ยท 84 TOTAL S-07 โ†’ B-05 NEXT

2026-07-08 ยท twentieth firing ยท ledger row 25 ยท harvest batch F5+6-01 ยท campaign branch loop/matrix-harvest-campaign

In plain words: yesterday's massacre wrote the shopping list. After three stack-adjacent detectors died at the gate, this refill admitted only mechanisms that carry their own printed guarantees or work in ways nothing in the lab's stack does. Five entered: the adaptive-windowing detector whose false-alarm bounds are theorems in its 2007 paper (exactly the trust-anchor currency the gates demand โ€” in a very active library, updated four days ago); the 1954 inspection-scheme classic that fathered the whole field, entering explicitly as the calibration baseline; a density-ratio detector that sidesteps density estimation and bounds its objective under fat tails by construction; a spectral-subspace method on trajectory matrices (carefully distinguished from the boneyarded eigenvalue thresholding); and the matrix-profile segmenter, domain-agnostic by design. One refusal on the record: the always-valid p-value line was NOT catalogued โ€” it's the ancestor of the e-value machinery already in the catalog, and an ancestor row would be a duplicate wearing a older name. If four of the five pass next firing's screen, the EXPIRY boundary finally reaches its handoff batch.

The five mechanisms (all genuinely stack-absent)

idInstrumentMechanism slotGuarantee / FOSS
H-080ADWIN (river, BSD-3, 5870โ˜…)adaptive windowingFP/FN bounds printed in the paper โ€” native M1 currency
H-081Pageโ€“Hinkley (river)CUSUM root (1954)ARL theory; enters as the calibration baseline
H-082RuLSIF (changepoynt, BSD-2)density-ratioฮฑ-relative ratio bounded under heavy tails by design
H-083SST (changepoynt)spectral subspacenonparametric; NOT the boneyarded MP thresholding โ€” distinction recorded
H-084FLOSS (stumpy, 4109โ˜…)matrix profiledomain-agnostic by design; online-capable

Padding refusal: mSPRT/always-valid p-values โ€” ancestor of the catalogued e-value machinery; family 18 swept by scope call.

Coverage counters after this firing

BoundaryMinimumVerifiedScreened-passFedStarvation
STABLE10033232367
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL6014121246
CONDITIONAL-scoping4030037
FAIL4013101027
EXPIRY40166024
cross-cutting2050015
Total300845145216

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Machine-readable record: ledger row 25 + catalog ยงF5+6-01. WebSearch: blocked this firing (recorded). Pages are append-only.