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Iteration 21 โ€” EXPIRY screen S-07 5/5 PASS B-05 TRIGGERED โ€” FIFTH HANDOFF NEXT

2026-07-08 ยท twenty-first firing ยท ledger row 26 ยท screening batch S-07 ยท campaign branch loop/matrix-harvest-campaign

In plain words: a perfect score that proves a process point. Two firings ago, the EXPIRY screen went one-for-five โ€” stack-duplicates and frameworks died at the gate. That massacre wrote a precise shopping list ("mechanisms with printed guarantees or genuinely absent machinery only"), the refill shopped against it, and today all five refill entries passed: the adaptive-windowing detector with its theorem-grade false-alarm bounds, the 1954 inspection classic, and three mechanisms the lab's stack simply doesn't have (density-ratio, spectral-subspace, matrix-profile). Three carry honest borderline notes โ€” their guarantees are about estimation, not testing, so hand-built permutation checks travel with them for the lab's real-data gate. The contrast โ€” 1/5 then, 5/5 now โ€” is the campaign's cheapest lesson on the record: harvest against the screen's own bar and the screen stops being a slaughterhouse. EXPIRY now has eleven vetted passers; the fifth handoff batch fires next, after which every substantive boundary except regime-scoping will have delivered to the lab.

Then vs now

 S-06 (iter 19):  scaffold-era cohort, harvested BEFORE the bar existed
                  โ†’ 1 PASS / 4 OUT (3 stack-duplicates, 1 framework)
 S-07 (iter 21):  refill cohort, harvested AGAINST the S-06 bar
                  โ†’ 5 PASS / 0 OUT
 Lesson (recorded): the screen's kills are the next harvest's specification.

The five passers

idInstrumentM1 anchor
H-080ADWIN (river)printed FP/FN bounds โ€” strongest in cohort
H-081Pageโ€“Hinkley (river)ARL theory; calibration-baseline role
H-082RuLSIF (changepoynt)constructed block-permutation null โ€” M2 decides
H-083SST (changepoynt)constructed Hankel-shuffle null + planted change
H-084FLOSS (stumpy)near-native: the paper's no-change arc-curve is the reference

Coverage counters after this firing

BoundaryMinimumVerifiedScreened-passFed
STABLE100332323
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL60141212
CONDITIONAL-scoping40300
FAIL40131010
EXPIRY401611 (pending)0
cross-cutting20500
Total300845645

โ–ถ Next iteration

Machine-readable record: ledger row 26 + catalog ยงS-07. WebSearch: blocked this firing (recorded). Pages are append-only.