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Iteration 23 โ€” COND-scoping's first harvest 7 ROWS ยท 91 TOTAL 16 OF 20 FAMILIES SWEPT

2026-07-08 ยท twenty-third firing ยท ledger row 28 ยท harvest batch F16-01 ยท campaign branch loop/matrix-harvest-campaign

In plain words: the last cold boundary got its expedition. Regime-scoping instruments answer the question the incumbents can't: not "in how many regimes does this feature work?" but "in WHICH regimes โ€” and what do those regimes look like in the tails?" Seven entries: the asymptotic tail-dependence coefficient (what LGC's local fits approximate, taken to the limit), the extremogram โ€” possibly the most substrate-native instrument in the whole catalog, since serial dependence of extremes is literally its object of study โ€” extreme-value copula inference, the dynamic Hรผslerโ€“Reiss graphical models whose crash-graph/rally-graph asymmetry was this morning's web-search find (crypto crashes together, rallies apart), and the 2002 exceedance-correlation classic. Two conceptually excellent candidates entered and immediately exited with NO-IMPL stamps: the extremes change-point tracker and the Markov-switching vine copulas โ€” the purest scoping idea in the family, whose building blocks exist in two maintained libraries but whose switching layer nobody has published code for; both carry revisit notes. Also on the record: two wrong-from-memory citation identifiers and their recoveries, and the campaign's first same-firing conversion of web-search finds into verified catalog rows. The families-sweep audit rode along: sixteen of twenty families swept; the four remaining are named with their leads.

The seven

idInstrumentWhat it namesState
H-085Tail-dependence coefficient (copula, active 2026)the asymptotic tail limit of co-movementCATALOGUED
H-086Extremogram (CRAN)serial dependence OF extremes โ€” built for our substrateCATALOGUED
H-087EV-copula rank inference (copula)the whole extremal dependence structureCATALOGUED
H-088EVT change-point trackingabrupt changes in tail comovementNO-IMPL terminal โ€” revisit noted
H-089Dynamic Hรผslerโ€“Reiss graphs (graphicalExtremes, 2026-03)crash-graph vs rally-graph asymmetryCATALOGUED
H-090Exceedance correlation (Angโ€“Chen 2002)correlation conditional on being in the tailCATALOGUED
H-091MS-vine copulas (Stรถberโ€“Czado 2014)named-regime dependence structures โ€” the purest scoping ideaNO-IMPL terminal โ€” primitives exist, switching layer doesn't; revisit noted

Families-sweep audit (flagged at row 25, executed here)

 SWEPT (16/20): 1* 2 4 5 6 7 9 11 12 13 15 16 17 18** 19 20
   *family 1: GROW-variant residue noted   **family 18: swept by scope call
 NOT SWEPT (4): 3  conformal family     โ€” EnbPI, SAOCP, conformal-PID leads
                8  conditional independence โ€” CondIndTests, cdcsis leads
                10 resampling machinery โ€” circular block, subsampling leads
                14 predictive-ability   โ€” DM, GW, SPA, MCS (serves CONDITIONAL โ€” untouched)

Coverage counters after this firing โ€” every boundary โ‰ฅ10 except cross-cutting

BoundaryMinimumVerifiedScreened-passFedStarvation
STABLE10033232367
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL6014121246
CONDITIONAL-scoping40100030
FAIL4013101027
EXPIRY4016111124
cross-cutting2050015
Total300915656209

โ–ถ Next iteration

Machine-readable record: ledger row 28 + catalog ยงF16-01. WebSearch: answered โ€” first same-firing lead-to-catalog conversion. Pages are append-only.