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Iteration 24 โ€” COND-scoping screen S-08 8/8 PASS GAP OF TWO โ€” FAMILY 14 REFILL NAMED

2026-07-08 ยท twenty-fourth firing ยท ledger row 29 ยท screening batch S-08 ยท campaign branch loop/matrix-harvest-campaign

In plain words: the regime-scoping instruments had their first interrogation and all eight passed โ€” the second consecutive perfect screen, and for the same structural reason as the last one: when a harvest is scoped to the boundary's own currency from the start (here: "name the regimes, control the declarations"), the weak candidates die at harvest time instead of screen time. The passers split into two natural squads: the declaration layer (the FWER and FDR procedures that keep multi-regime claims honest, plus the regime-dependent causal reconstructor) and the characterization layer (the tail-dependence limit, the extremogram, extreme-value copulas, the crash-vs-rally graphs, and exceedance correlation โ€” the instruments that describe what a regime IS in the tails). But eight is two short of a handoff batch, and the rulebook doesn't round up: the gap is reported, and the refill is already named โ€” the one family that has never been touched, the classic forecast-comparison tests, which happen to serve exactly this boundary.

The two squads (all passed)

SquadidInstrumentM1 anchor
Declaration layerH-046Romanoโ€“Wolf stepdownbootstrap stepdown (paper-native)
H-047Benjaminiโ€“YekutieliFDR bound under arbitrary dependence
H-005Regime-MCI (tigramite)per-link p-values + block shuffle
Characterization layerH-085Tail-dependence coefficientblock-bootstrap CIs (borderline)
H-086Extremogramstationary-bootstrap null (native)
H-087EV-copula inferencerank-based tests (native)
H-089Dynamic Hรผslerโ€“Reiss graphsconstructed; EVT sample-care flagged
H-090Exceedance correlationH-statistic vs null model

Coverage counters after this firing

BoundaryMinimumVerifiedScreened-passFed
STABLE100332323
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL60141212
CONDITIONAL-scoping40108 (gap of 2)0
FAIL40131010
EXPIRY40161111
cross-cutting20500
Total300916456

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Machine-readable record: ledger row 29 + catalog ยงS-08. WebSearch: blocked this firing (recorded). Pages are append-only.