In plain words: the regime-scoping instruments had their first interrogation and all eight passed โ the second consecutive perfect screen, and for the same structural reason as the last one: when a harvest is scoped to the boundary's own currency from the start (here: "name the regimes, control the declarations"), the weak candidates die at harvest time instead of screen time. The passers split into two natural squads: the declaration layer (the FWER and FDR procedures that keep multi-regime claims honest, plus the regime-dependent causal reconstructor) and the characterization layer (the tail-dependence limit, the extremogram, extreme-value copulas, the crash-vs-rally graphs, and exceedance correlation โ the instruments that describe what a regime IS in the tails). But eight is two short of a handoff batch, and the rulebook doesn't round up: the gap is reported, and the refill is already named โ the one family that has never been touched, the classic forecast-comparison tests, which happen to serve exactly this boundary.
The two squads (all passed)
Squad
id
Instrument
M1 anchor
Declaration layer
H-046
RomanoโWolf stepdown
bootstrap stepdown (paper-native)
H-047
BenjaminiโYekutieli
FDR bound under arbitrary dependence
H-005
Regime-MCI (tigramite)
per-link p-values + block shuffle
Characterization layer
H-085
Tail-dependence coefficient
block-bootstrap CIs (borderline)
H-086
Extremogram
stationary-bootstrap null (native)
H-087
EV-copula inference
rank-based tests (native)
H-089
Dynamic HรผslerโReiss graphs
constructed; EVT sample-care flagged
H-090
Exceedance correlation
H-statistic vs null model
Coverage counters after this firing
Boundary
Minimum
Verified
Screened-pass
Fed
STABLE
100
33
23
23
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL
60
14
12
12
CONDITIONAL-scoping
40
10
8 (gap of 2)
0
FAIL
40
13
10
10
EXPIRY
40
16
11
11
cross-cutting
20
5
0
0
Total
300
91
64
56
โถ Next iteration
Iteration 25 = family-14 harvest (the last untouched family): DieboldโMariano, GiacominiโWhite CPA, Hansen SPA, Model Confidence Set. The forecast-comparison classics โ all autocorrelation-aware by design (HAC-based, built for dependent forecast errors), all with maintained implementations to verify. Two clean passers close the COND-scoping gap and fire B-06; the family also feeds the CONDITIONAL boundary's M4 machinery slot the taxonomy names.
Alternatives: family-3 conformal harvest (G7-bar) ยท family-10 completion ยท STABLE lead-verification (deficit 67, still the largest).
Steering point: no directive = family-14 harvest next firing. Directives are ledger-recorded verbatim before taking effect.
Machine-readable record: ledger row 29 + catalog ยงS-08. WebSearch: blocked this firing (recorded). Pages are append-only.