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Iteration 25 โ€” Family 14 falls 4 HARVESTED ยท 95 TOTAL ALL 20 FAMILIES TOUCHED

2026-07-08 ยท twenty-fifth firing ยท ledger row 30 ยท harvest batch F14-01 ยท campaign branch loop/matrix-harvest-campaign

In plain words: the last untouched shelf of the library got its visit. The forecast-comparison classics are the tools econometricians built to answer "is model A really better than model B, or is that noise?" โ€” and they were built from day one for exactly our substrate problem, with corrections for serially dependent errors baked in. Four entered: the 1995 Dieboldโ€“Mariano test (the field's workhorse), the Giacominiโ€“White conditional test โ€” which is the regime-scoping question in its native statistical form ("is this thing better WHEN the market is in state X?"), Hansen's data-snooping-robust superiority test, and the Model Confidence Set, whose set-valued answer ("these regimes are statistically indistinguishable from the best") is precisely the shape a scoping verdict wants. With this, every one of the twenty method families has now been visited at least once โ€” the map has no blank continents left, only three shelves with named leftovers. The four newcomers face the gates next; two passers close the regime-scoping gap and fire the sixth handoff โ€” which would put candidate batches on the lab's shelf for every boundary in the machine.

The four

idInstrumentWhat it brings to regime-scoping
H-092Dieboldโ€“Mariano (forecast, active 2026-03)per-regime predictive-contribution comparison, HAC by design
H-093Giacominiโ€“White CPApredictive ability CONDITIONAL on states โ€” the boundary's question as a formal test
H-094Hansen SPA (arch, MCS)snooping-robust superiority across many regime comparisons
H-095Model Confidence Set (MCS, active 2026-03)the SET of regimes indistinguishable from best โ€” set-valued scoping

Coverage counters after this firing

BoundaryMinimumVerifiedScreened-passFedStarvation
STABLE10033232367
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL6014121246
CONDITIONAL-scoping40148026
FAIL4013101027
EXPIRY4016111124
cross-cutting2050015
Total300956456205

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Machine-readable record: ledger row 30 + catalog ยงF14-01. WebSearch: blocked this firing (recorded). Pages are append-only.