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Iteration 26 โ€” COND-scoping screen S-09 4/4 PASS B-06 TRIGGERED โ€” FULL COVERAGE ONE FIRING AWAY

2026-07-08 ยท twenty-sixth firing ยท ledger row 31 ยท screening batch S-09 ยท campaign branch loop/matrix-harvest-campaign

In plain words: the forecast-comparison classics passed clean โ€” the third consecutive perfect screen, all three following the same recipe the campaign learned the hard way in iterations 19โ€“21: harvest against the boundary's own bar and the screen finds only survivors. All four carry guarantees printed in their papers (a corrected asymptotic test, a state-conditional Wald test, a dependence-aware bootstrap null, and a set-coverage guarantee) โ€” no hand-built anchors in this cohort at all. Regime-scoping now holds twelve vetted passers, two over the handoff threshold. Next firing publishes the sixth batch โ€” and with it, every boundary in the status machine will have candidate instruments sitting on the certification lab's shelf: the invariance testers, the redundancy detectors, the k-of-N evidence machines, the decay-watchers, and the regime characterizers with their declaration layer. From there, the campaign's remaining road is depth, not breadth: the long climb toward the per-boundary minimums, led by STABLE's 67-entry gap.

The four (all paper-native anchors)

idInstrumentM1 anchor
H-092Dieboldโ€“MarianoHAC asymptotics + small-sample correction
H-093Giacominiโ€“White CPAstate-conditional Wald test, rolling-scheme-valid
H-094Hansen SPAstationary-bootstrap null
H-095Model Confidence Setset-coverage guarantee

Coverage counters after this firing

BoundaryMinimumVerifiedScreened-passFed
STABLE100332323
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL60141212
CONDITIONAL-scoping401412 (pending)0
FAIL40131010
EXPIRY40161111
cross-cutting20500
Total300956856

โ–ถ Next iteration

Machine-readable record: ledger row 31 + catalog ยงS-09. WebSearch: blocked this firing (recorded). Pages are append-only.