In plain words: yesterday's finding became today's method, and the method worked on the first try. After the code-gap discovery (three of five paper-first entries had no implementations), this firing inverted the search: find the maintained library first, then verify its paper backward. Three entries, three clean catalogs, zero casualties. The haul: the refutation battery from the causal-inference ecosystem's flagship library (updated literally yesterday, 8,200 stars) โ a structured suite of "try to break your own claim" probes including the one no gate in the lab's stack covers, sensitivity to unmeasured confounding; the E-value โ a closed-form answer to "how strong would hidden confounding have to be to explain this away?" (with a note disambiguating it from the betting e-values elsewhere in the catalog โ same name, entirely different object); and J-PCMCI+, which completes the catalog's causal-discovery quartet: one engine each for plain autocorrelated series, hidden confounders, named regimes, and pooled multi-regime datasets. The STABLE boundary is at 41 of 100 โ the long pole is shortening.
Then vs now โ the search-order inversion
D1-01 (iter 28, paper-first): 5 harvested โ 3 NO-IMPL casualties
D2-01 (iter 29, implemented-first): 3 harvested โ 0 casualties
The code-gap finding paid for itself in one firing.
PCMCI quartet now complete: PCMCI+ (base) ยท LPCMCI (latent) ยท
regime-MCI (named regimes) ยท J-PCMCI+ (pooled contexts)
structured claim-robustness suite incl. unobserved-confounder probes โ a slot nothing in the stack covers
H-102
VanderWeeleโDing E-value (CRAN, maintained)
closed-form confounding-strength sensitivity; name-collision note vs betting e-values on record
H-103
J-PCMCI+ (tigramite)
pooled multi-regime discovery with latent contexts โ completes the quartet
Coverage counters after this firing
Boundary
Minimum
Verified
Screened-pass
Fed
Starvation
STABLE
100
41
23
23
59
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL
60
14
12
12
46
CONDITIONAL-scoping
40
14
12
12
26
FAIL
40
13
10
10
27
EXPIRY
40
16
11
11
24
cross-cutting
20
5
0
0
15
Total
300
103
68
68
197
โถ Next iteration
Iteration 30 = STABLE depth #3, implemented-first continues. Veins: R invariance ecosystem (drtmle/tmle-adjacent robustness diagnostics, sensemakr โ CinelliโHazlett sensitivity, another maintained confounding-sensitivity line), py-why remainder, and the firecrawl channel's first live run against the five NO-IMPL revisit notes (H-088, H-091, H-097, H-098, H-100). STABLE's screenable-unscreened cohort is 5 โ after one more harvest it reaches screen size (~8-10) โ S-10 โ B-07.
Alternatives: cross-cutting completion (15-gap โ the cheapest minimum to close: circular block, subsampling, wild-cluster lines) ยท FRAGILEโCOND depth.
Steering point: no directive = implemented-first STABLE #3 next firing. Directives are ledger-recorded verbatim before taking effect.
Machine-readable record: ledger row 34 + catalog ยงD2-01. WebSearch: blocked this firing (recorded). Pages are append-only.