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Iteration 29 โ€” Implemented-first works 3/3 CLEAN ยท 103 TOTAL STRATEGY VALIDATED IN ONE FIRING

2026-07-08 ยท twenty-ninth firing ยท ledger row 34 ยท depth harvest D2-01 ยท campaign branch loop/matrix-harvest-campaign

In plain words: yesterday's finding became today's method, and the method worked on the first try. After the code-gap discovery (three of five paper-first entries had no implementations), this firing inverted the search: find the maintained library first, then verify its paper backward. Three entries, three clean catalogs, zero casualties. The haul: the refutation battery from the causal-inference ecosystem's flagship library (updated literally yesterday, 8,200 stars) โ€” a structured suite of "try to break your own claim" probes including the one no gate in the lab's stack covers, sensitivity to unmeasured confounding; the E-value โ€” a closed-form answer to "how strong would hidden confounding have to be to explain this away?" (with a note disambiguating it from the betting e-values elsewhere in the catalog โ€” same name, entirely different object); and J-PCMCI+, which completes the catalog's causal-discovery quartet: one engine each for plain autocorrelated series, hidden confounders, named regimes, and pooled multi-regime datasets. The STABLE boundary is at 41 of 100 โ€” the long pole is shortening.

Then vs now โ€” the search-order inversion

 D1-01 (iter 28, paper-first):        5 harvested โ†’ 3 NO-IMPL casualties
 D2-01 (iter 29, implemented-first):  3 harvested โ†’ 0 casualties
 The code-gap finding paid for itself in one firing.
 PCMCI quartet now complete: PCMCI+ (base) ยท LPCMCI (latent) ยท
 regime-MCI (named regimes) ยท J-PCMCI+ (pooled contexts)

The three

idInstrumentWhat it adds to STABLE
H-101DoWhy refutation battery (MIT, 8203โ˜…, pushed 2026-07-07)structured claim-robustness suite incl. unobserved-confounder probes โ€” a slot nothing in the stack covers
H-102VanderWeeleโ€“Ding E-value (CRAN, maintained)closed-form confounding-strength sensitivity; name-collision note vs betting e-values on record
H-103J-PCMCI+ (tigramite)pooled multi-regime discovery with latent contexts โ€” completes the quartet

Coverage counters after this firing

BoundaryMinimumVerifiedScreened-passFedStarvation
STABLE10041232359
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL6014121246
CONDITIONAL-scoping4014121226
FAIL4013101027
EXPIRY4016111124
cross-cutting2050015
Total3001036868197

โ–ถ Next iteration

Machine-readable record: ledger row 34 + catalog ยงD2-01. WebSearch: blocked this firing (recorded). Pages are append-only.