2026-07-07 ยท seventh firing ยท ledger row 12 ยท harvest batch F2-01 ยท campaign branch loop/matrix-harvest-campaign
| id | Instrument | Boundary | The guarantee it brings |
| H-051 | E-detectors (stcpR6, CRAN) | EXPIRY | sequential change alarms with nonasymptotic false-alarm control โ no distribution fitted, nothing to break |
| H-052 | Time-uniform confidence sequences (confseq, MIT, active) | EXPIRY | monitoring bands valid under optional stopping โ THE live-decay guarantee |
| H-053 | Universal inference (PNAS 2020) | STABLE | finite-sample tests with NO regularity conditions โ survives the mixture likelihoods that killed parametric Chow |
| H-054 | Conformal test martingales (Vovk 2021) | EXPIRY | online exchangeability breakdown โ flagged: already admission Frontier #4 (designed, unbuilt) |
| H-055 | SKIT โ sequential kernelized independence (MIT) | FAIL | independence evidence that accumulates, anytime-valid |
| H-056 | Two-sample testing by betting | FRAGILEโCOND | sequential regime-homogeneity โ a martingale, not a trained classifier (the boneyarded mode) |
| H-057 | Betting-based mean estimation (confseq) | cross-cutting | anytime-valid CIs for any bounded per-regime statistic โ calibration machinery |
| H-058 | Safe testing + safestats (CRAN) | STABLE | optional-continuation-safe tests โ the theory root of admission candidate A, with maintained code |
| H-059 | Sequential quantile bands (confseq) | EXPIRY | rank-based tail monitoring โ no moment conditions, heavy-tail-native |
Scope calls (padding refused, on the record): Shafer's testing-by-betting manifesto + the admissibility theory line โ theory anchors with no per-feature readout (H-010 precedent: they screen OUT as OFF-GOAL).
Machine-readable record: ledger row 12 + catalog ยงF2-01. Pages are append-only.