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Iteration 7 โ€” Family 2 swept 9 HARVESTED ยท 59 TOTAL FAIL SCREEN COHORT READY

2026-07-07 ยท seventh firing ยท ledger row 12 ยท harvest batch F2-01 ยท campaign branch loop/matrix-harvest-campaign

In plain words: this firing harvested the family of instruments that answer a question every trading system eventually asks: "how do I keep checking a claim while the data keeps arriving โ€” without fooling myself by peeking?" Classical statistics breaks when you look at accumulating evidence repeatedly; this family (the "anytime-valid" school) is built so the guarantee holds no matter how often you look or when you stop. Nine instruments entered: change-detectors with provable false-alarm control, monitoring bands that stay honest forever, a technique for testing hypotheses when the usual textbook conditions fail (exactly the mixture-distribution mess that killed a classical test on our data), sequential versions of independence and regime-homogeneity tests, and quantile trackers that are naturally immune to fat tails. Two entered without dedicated code but with constructions cheap enough to state on the record. One (the conformal test martingale) was flagged as already sitting in the admission lab's own to-build queue โ€” the flag travels with the entry so nobody duplicates work. Two theory papers were deliberately left OUT โ€” they would have padded the count without adding a usable gauge. The FAIL boundary now has eleven screenable instruments: its first interrogation batch is due next firing.

The nine (and what each watches)

idInstrumentBoundaryThe guarantee it brings
H-051E-detectors (stcpR6, CRAN)EXPIRYsequential change alarms with nonasymptotic false-alarm control โ€” no distribution fitted, nothing to break
H-052Time-uniform confidence sequences (confseq, MIT, active)EXPIRYmonitoring bands valid under optional stopping โ€” THE live-decay guarantee
H-053Universal inference (PNAS 2020)STABLEfinite-sample tests with NO regularity conditions โ€” survives the mixture likelihoods that killed parametric Chow
H-054Conformal test martingales (Vovk 2021)EXPIRYonline exchangeability breakdown โ€” flagged: already admission Frontier #4 (designed, unbuilt)
H-055SKIT โ€” sequential kernelized independence (MIT)FAILindependence evidence that accumulates, anytime-valid
H-056Two-sample testing by bettingFRAGILEโ†”CONDsequential regime-homogeneity โ€” a martingale, not a trained classifier (the boneyarded mode)
H-057Betting-based mean estimation (confseq)cross-cuttinganytime-valid CIs for any bounded per-regime statistic โ€” calibration machinery
H-058Safe testing + safestats (CRAN)STABLEoptional-continuation-safe tests โ€” the theory root of admission candidate A, with maintained code
H-059Sequential quantile bands (confseq)EXPIRYrank-based tail monitoring โ€” no moment conditions, heavy-tail-native

Scope calls (padding refused, on the record): Shafer's testing-by-betting manifesto + the admissibility theory line โ€” theory anchors with no per-feature readout (H-010 precedent: they screen OUT as OFF-GOAL).

Coverage counters after this firing

BoundaryMinimumVerifiedScreened-passFedStarvation
STABLE100251010 (B-01)75
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL6060054
CONDITIONAL-scoping4030037
FAIL40130027
EXPIRY40100030
cross-cutting2020018
Total300591010241

Channel + lifecycle notes

WebSearch pattern confirmed: this firing's statistics-phrased query was filter-blocked while iteration 5/6's finance/regime-phrased queries passed โ€” the block is topic-phrasing-dependent. Ladder channels (arXiv/Crossref/PyPI/CRAN/gh) verified all nine entries without it. Branch: rebased onto main (one wording-fix commit), force-pushed with lease; PR #582 OPEN and mergeable.

โ–ถ Next iteration

Machine-readable record: ledger row 12 + catalog ยงF2-01. Pages are append-only.