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Dashboard โ€บ Rotation-Orthogonal-Probe Campaign โ€บ iter 19

iter 19 โ€” 750-inclusion consistency: the oldest open observation closed

SURVIVES  2026-07-10 ยท noted in iter 1, carried through 18 iterations, now closed on evidence ยท clean 2/3

Claim under attack (assumed true only to destroy it)

The probe's two verdict paths treat the spearman_only config divergently: aggregate_worst_regime EXCLUDES 750-dbps cells from ฮพ ("thin per slice โ†’ ฮพ unreliable") while aggregate_worst_cell INCLUDES them. The claim: this divergence is not verdict-material โ€” ยงB verdicts are identical with and without the 750 cells, under both the raw and the iter-4 stability-guarded statistics.

Result โ€” 7/7 invariant under all four aggregations

Pairraw full / no-750guarded full / no-750750 votes (unstable)
ofi | turnover_imbalanceBAN / BANBAN / BAN15 (0)
agg_record_count | individual_trade_countBAN / BANBAN / BAN15 (0)
price_impact | volumeBAN / BANBAN / BAN15 (4)
price_impact | sell_volumeWATCH / WATCHWATCH / WATCH15 (5)
kyle_lambda_proxy | ofi ยท bar_cecp_velocity | ofi ยท bar_dispersion_entropy | trade_intensityPASS / PASS ร—3PASS / PASS ร—315 (0) each

Bonus insight: the iter-4 stability guard flags unstable 750 votes exactly where the config worried they'd be unreliable (the price_impact family: 4โ€“5 unstable of 15) and nowhere else โ€” the guard performs the spearman_only config's job automatically, making the two paths' conventions materially equivalent.

Evidence

FileWhat
a19_750_inclusion_attack.pyThe attack โ€” four aggregations per pair; falsifiers pre-declared in-file.
a19_results.jsonPer-pair verdict quadruples + 750-vote stability counts.
a19_stderr.logRun log under the 2 CPU / 2 GB scope.
regression_tests/test_a19_750_inclusion.shPermanent regression test โ€” re-runs the attack, asserts SURVIVES.

Consequence

The ledger's last carried observation is closed on evidence, not assumption. No known open threads remain anywhere in the campaign. Clean rounds: 2 of 3 โ€” one more clean round triggers ROBUST-ENOUGH โ€” OPERATOR REVIEW.

iter 19 ยท 750-inclusion consistency ยท verdict SURVIVES ยท one atomic commit: iter 19: 750-inclusion consistency โ€” SURVIVES ยท append-only.