โ€บNavigation
Dashboard โ€บ Rotation-Orthogonal-Probe Campaign โ€บ iter 4

iter 4 โ€” A6: thin-cell ฮพ stability at the FLOOR_1000 boundary

BREAKS โ†’ DEFENDED โ†’ CLOSED  2026-07-10 ยท attack A6 (the 750-dbps thread from iter 1; KB ยง4 small-noisy-cell) ยท 8,680 thin windows ยท 77 frozen-line crossings found ยท sub-slice stability guard added ยท clean 0/3

Claim under attack

"FLOOR_1000 bar-equivalent grounding (frozen floor = 50 value-rows) makes per-cell ฮพ reliable โ€” a thin-but-grounded cell cannot cast a noise-driven ยงB vote (a breadth count at ฮพโ‰ฅ0.50, or an xi_worst contribution)." Aimed directly at the promotion gate: ยงB PASS requires xi_worst < 0.50 over ALL grounded cells, so ONE noisy thin cell flips PASSโ†’WATCH; the theoretical null sd of ฮพ at n=60 is โ‰ˆ0.082, so a 0.50-crossing from a true 0.2โ€“0.3 needs only 2.5โ€“3.5ฯƒ.

Attack construction (real contiguous sub-slices โ€” nothing generated)

Each 80k-bar cell (3,990 value-rows) yields 20 disjoint contiguous windows of 60 value-rows (1,200 bar-equivalents โ€” just above the frozen floor). Each window is byte-for-byte what a legitimately thin cell (newly-listed symbol, short-history 750-dbps cell) would present. Falsifiers: F1 window ฮพ โ‰ฅ 0.50 while full-cell < 0.40 (the 0.10 buffer excludes genuine near-line ambiguity); F2 window ฮพ > 0.95 while full-cell < 0.85.

ATTACK RESULT โ€” 77 crossings: both ยงB directions contaminated

FalsifierHitsPairWorst case
F1 (false PASS-line votes)48kyle_lambda_proxy|ofi โ€” certified-orthogonalwindow ฮพ 0.7174 vs full-cell 0.359 (NEARUSDT@250)
F2 (false BAN-line votes)29price_impact|volumewindow ฮพ 0.9508 vs full-cell < 0.85

30 of 62 cells produced crossings; max |ฮพ_window โˆ’ ฮพ_fullcell| = 0.75. The floor alone does not make thin votes safe โ€” in either direction.

DEFENSE โ€” sub-slice agreement stability guard (bands untouched)

xi_cell_vote_stable(x, y, keys):        # rotation_robust_eval, iter 4
    stable โŸบ every contiguous sub-slice (2 halves + 3 thirds + 4 quarters) sits on the
             SAME SIDE of BOTH frozen lines (0.50, 0.95) as the full-cell reading

xi_worstcell_verdict_guarded(stable_votes, n_unstable):
    ยงB band arithmetic (FROZEN) on STABLE votes only     # BAN never rests on noise
    PASS with any unstable cell โ†’ PENDING                # never certify unresolved evidence

Defense iteration recorded honestly: the first guard (halves+thirds) left ONE locally-consistent window through (BTCUSDT@750, ฮพ 0.578 vs truth 0.399 โ€” all 5 sub-slices agreed); adding quarters closed it. Evidence: a6_v2_stderr.log (1 breach) vs a6_v2_stderr_k4.log (0 breaches).

Proof the defense closes the gap (same attack, re-run)

CheckResult
G1 โ€” quarantine of noise-crossing thin votes76/76 crossings judged UNSTABLE (none admitted)
G2 โ€” declared ยงB verdicts through the guard, 62 full cells7/7 reproduce (BANยทBANยทBANยทWATCHยทPASSยทPASSยทPASS); all three PASS pairs 62/62 stable โ€” zero collateral PENDING
G3 โ€” end-to-end thin-cell scenario (crossing window appended as a 63rd cell)PASS pair โ†’ PENDING (honest "can't certify"), never WATCH/BAN; BAN pair stays BAN (29/29)
A5 substrate-validity regressionSURVIVES (7/7)
ยงB declaration self-testPASS

Evidence

FileWhat
a6_thin_cell_attack.py / a6_results.jsonv1 attack โ€” 77 crossings, per-cell window min/max table.
a6_thin_cell_attack_v2.py / a6_v2_results.jsonSame surface vs the defended mechanism โ€” G1/G2/G3, 0 breaches (final).
a6_stderr.log ยท a6_v2_stderr.log ยท a6_v2_stderr_k4.logRun logs under the 2 CPU / 2 GB scope โ€” incl. the intermediate 1-breach guard round.
regression_tests/test_a6_thin_cell.shPermanent regression test โ€” re-runs v2, asserts SURVIVES.

Consequence

The promotion gate can no longer be swayed by a thin cell in either direction: noisy thin votes are quarantined, BAN requires stable evidence, and unresolved cells block certification (PENDING) instead of polluting it. This also retires the 750-dbps thread opened in iter 1 (thin 750 cells now quality-gate themselves). Clean rounds: 0 of 3.

Open threads

iter 4 ยท attack A6 ยท verdict BREAKS โ†’ DEFENDED โ†’ CLOSED ยท one atomic commit: iter 4: A6 thin-cell floor stability โ€” BREAKSโ†’DEFENDED ยท append-only.