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Dashboard โ€บ Probes โ€บ Realness Loop โ€บ Iter 33 ยท #17 GROUNDED

iteration 33 ยท 2026-07-24 ยท robustness axis ยท terminal ยท laptop-drives-bigblack

๐Ÿ”๏ธ #17 Parameter-plateau vs needle GROUNDED

Does the feature's performance form a broad plateau across its parameter grid (robust โ€” neighbours also work) or a single-node needle (overfit โ€” only one lucky setting works)? A real signal has a contiguous plateau of good IC around the centre; an overfit one has an isolated needle. All 3 gates ground, robust across 3 seeds.

3 / 3
gates ยท 3 seeds
8 / 9
median plateau run
0.0
needle false-plateau
19 / 20
terminal (18 G ยท 1 R)

The three gates

Gate (ยง7 row 17)Result (3 seeds)
Admit / power (plateau)detect 1.0 โ€” R_aggโ‰ฅ.7 & neighbour-fraction Pโ‰ฅ.8 & contiguous run โ‰ฅ5 (median run 8 of 9)PASS
False-plateau (needle + noise)needle 0.0 (median run 1) ยท noise โ‰ค0.05 โ€” neither called a plateauPASS
Neighbour-correlation preservedadjacent-node corr 0.83 (โˆˆ[.6,.95]) โ€” the real knob-neighbour structurePASS
The plateau/needle separation is a contiguous-run-through-centre. A real robust signal spreads good IC across adjacent parameter settings (a broad plateau); an overfit needle concentrates it on one lucky node. The 1-D cos-ฮธ node grid is built from a deterministic mix of two real gaussianised features (โˆš.85 correlated direction + โˆš.15 per-node idiosyncrasy), so adjacent nodes carry the real .7โ€“.9 knob-neighbour correlation; the null permutes only the target and preserves the cross-node feature-correlation. A needle โ€” good only at the centre node, driven by that node's private idiosyncrasy โ€” never forms a contiguous run โ‰ฅ5 and so is correctly rejected. Real-data-only (03c).