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Axis-2 · Cascade-Free Harvest — Iteration 4 20 NEW

Family swept: illiquidity & price-impact + market-impact laws + capacity/turnover · campaign regime-invariant-orthogonality · append-only

20new candidates
0dupes
86running total (spot)
0out-of-scope this iter

The exit-cost / capacity axis. Fragility and ignition tell you a cascade is coming; this iteration harvests how hard it is to get out — the illiquidity and price-impact machinery. It deepens the seed set (Amihud, Kyle-λ, Kyle-Obizhaeva, Days-ADV, MRR, Glosten-Harris) with: low-frequency spread proxies (Gibbs, FHT, LOT/Zeros, effective tick), cross-venue price-discovery shares (Hasbrouck IS, Gonzalo–Granger CS), price-impact/reversal factors (Pástor–Stambaugh, Sadka), the market-impact laws (square-root law, Almgren–Chriss, Kyle–Obizhaeva trading-activity invariant W), resiliency/depth (VNET, Market Efficiency Coefficient), capacity/turnover (Hui–Heubel, turnover), and three crypto-native SOTA items.

The metaorder-label bridge. The impact laws (H60/H61/H65/H69/H71) classically need metaorder sizes we don't have in anonymous aggTrades. The genuinely new enabler here is H72 — Maitrier–Loeper–Bouchaud (2025) metaorder reconstruction, which synthesizes metaorders from anonymous public trades and recovers the √-law, concave profile and decay — making the whole impact-law block spot-legal from aggTrades (with a documented reconstruction-quality caveat). Raw quoted-spread / order-book depth stay L2 → out-of-scope.

New candidates (iter 4)

#NameFamilyMeasuresCascade / liquidity mappingSpot?ParamStable-IDFOSS
H53Amihud–Mendelson spread premiumilliquidity-proxy (priced)cross-sectional return premium for higher-spread assetsexit-difficulty priced as premium; crowding into liquid names[O/T]DR/PPAmihud & Mendelson 1986, JFE — DOI 10.1016/0304-405X(86)90065-6VER eguidotti/bidask (R/Py, MIT)
H54Amivest liquidity ratioilliquidity-proxy (ratio)mean (price·volume)/|return| → $ volume to move price 1%depth / price-impact (inverse exit-difficulty)[O]PFCooper, Groth, Avera 1985, JEB — DOI 10.1016/0148-6195(85)90003-7VER hand-rolled over OHLCV
H55Hasbrouck Information Shareprice-discovery-shareshare of efficient-price innovation variance per venue (VECM bounds)which spot venue leads; fragmentation of price discovery[MV]PPHasbrouck 1995, J.Finance — DOI 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04054.xUNV ifrogs::pdshare (R, license UNV)
H56Gonzalo–Granger Component Shareprice-discovery-sharepermanent-transitory decomposition weight per venue in the common factorvenue leadership; resiliency of the common efficient price[MV]PPGonzalo & Granger 1995, JBES — DOI 10.1080/07350015.1995.10524576UNV ifrogs::pdshare (R, license UNV)
H57Hasbrouck Gibbs Bayesian spreadlow-frequency-spread-proxyBayesian Roll-model effective cost c from daily closes (MCMC)exit-difficulty / round-trip cost from daily data[O]PPHasbrouck 2009, J.Finance — DOI 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01469.xVER Hasbrouck author code (SAS/R, academic-use)
H58Pástor–Stambaugh liquidity (γ)price-impact (reversal)signed-volume → next-day return-reversal coefficient γresiliency / reversal after order flow; aggregate liquidity-risk factor[O]PPPástor & Stambaugh 2003, JPE — DOI 10.1086/374184UNV OpenSourceAP/CrossSection (Py)
H59Sadka fixed/variable price impactprice-impactGlosten-Harris decomposition → variable-permanent (λ) + fixed-transitorypermanent impact (capacity/exit) vs transitory; informed-trader crowding[T]PPSadka 2006, JFE — DOI 10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.04.005 · parent H12UNV
H60Square-root law of market impactmarket-impact-lawΔP ≈ Y·σ·√(Q/V): impact ∝ √(participation); latent/critical liquiditycapacity & exit-difficulty; latent-liquidity depletion under crowding[MOL→recon]PPAlmgren et al. 2005, Risk 18:58-62 (no DOI); Tóth et al. 2011, PRX 1:021006 — DOI 10.1103/PhysRevX.1.021006; arXiv:1105.1694VER jpmorganchase/abides (Py, BSD-3); mlfinlab (proprietary)
H61Almgren–Chriss optimal executionmarket-impact-law + capacityefficient frontier of exec cost vs variance under linear temp+perm impactcapacity / cost-of-liquidation schedule[MOL→recon]PPAlmgren & Chriss 2000/01, J.Risk — DOI 10.21314/JOR.2001.041VER jpmorganchase/abides (Py, BSD-3)
H62FHT (Fong–Holden–Trzcinka)low-frequency-spread-proxyclosed-form spread from % zero-return days + volatility (LOT-family)exit-difficulty / effective spread from daily data (1000× faster than LOT)[O]PPFong, Holden, Trzcinka 2017, Rev.Finance — DOI 10.1093/rof/rfx003VER hand-rolled; bidask (spread family)
H63LOT + Zeroslow-frequency-spread-proxylimited-dependent-variable model on daily returns (LOT); Zeros = % zero-return daysexit-difficulty / no-trade friction[O]PP/PFLesmond, Ogden, Trzcinka 1999, RFS — DOI 10.1093/rfs/12.5.1113VER hand-rolled
H64Effective Tick / Holden / GHTlow-frequency-spread-proxyinfers spread from clustering of closes on the price/tick gridexit-difficulty from price discreteness (caveat: crypto tick very fine)[O/T]PPGoyenko, Holden, Trzcinka 2009, JFE — DOI 10.1016/j.jfineco.2008.06.002; Holden 2009, JFMVER hand-rolled
H65Kyle–Obizhaeva trading-activity invariant Wcapacity-turnover + impact-lawW = σ·P·V; impact/spread/bet-size ∝ W^{1/3}/W^{−1/3}/W^{−2/3}capacity / business-time pace of risk transfer; crowding[O]+reconDRKyle & Obizhaeva 2016, Econometrica — DOI 10.3982/ECTA10486 · parent S13UNV (no "Kritzman" co-author — conflation fixed)
H66VNET (Engle–Lange)resiliency + depthnet signed volume absorbed before price moves a threshold (ACD-timed)depth / resiliency ("value of patience")[T]PPEngle & Lange 2001, J.Fin.Markets — DOI 10.1016/S1386-4181(00)00019-7UNV (ACD leg in econometrics pkgs)
H67Market Efficiency Coefficientresiliency (price-efficiency)variance ratio = var(long-h ret)/(N·var(short-h ret)); ≈1 = efficient/liquidresiliency; transitory-noise / execution friction[T/O]PPHasbrouck & Schwartz 1988, JPM — DOI 10.3905/jpm.1988.409160UNV variance-ratio (trivial)
H68Hui–Heubel liquidity ratioilliquidity-proxy (depth)5-day (Pmax−Pmin)/Pmin ÷ (volume/(float·P̄))depth / breadth; exit-difficulty[O+supply]MNHui & Heubel 1984, DRI monograph (no DOI)UNV
H69Turnover / participation-rate capacitycapacity-turnoverturnover = volume/float; participation = order/ADVcapacity / crowding-adjusted exit; days-to-liquidate[O+supply]DRDatar, Naik, Radcliffe 1998, JFM · parent S14 Days-ADVVER hand-rolled
H70Brauneis et al. crypto proxy validationilliquidity-proxy meta-study (crypto SOTA)horse-race of LF proxies vs HF benchmark on BTC/ETH spotvalidates which spot proxy best tracks depth/spread (→ Amihud + Corwin-Schultz)[O/T]evalBrauneis, Mestel, Riordan, Theissen 2021, JBF — DOI 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.106041VER eguidotti/bidask (R/Py, MIT)
H71Donier–Bonart Bitcoin √-law impactmarket-impact-law (crypto SOTA)empirical √-law on BTC spot; Y-ratio≈0.9; informed-vs-uninformed decaycapacity / latent-liquidity depletion[MOL]PPDonier & Bonart 2015, Mkt.Micro.&Liq. — DOI 10.1142/S2382626615500082; arXiv:1412.4503UNV SLMolenaar/crypto-market-impact (Py)
H72Maitrier–Loeper–Bouchaud metaorder reconstructionmarket-impact-law enabling method (SOTA 2025)synthesize metaorders from anonymous public trades → recover √-law, concave profile, decayturns anonymous aggTrades into calibratable capacity/impact — bridges the MOL gap[T]PPMaitrier, Loeper, Bouchaud 2025 — arXiv:2503.18199 (companions 2506.07711, 2502.16246)UNV SLMolenaar/crypto-market-impact (Py)

FOSS anchors verified this iteration

Scope & provenance notes
Next angle → crypto-spot liquidity-quality & integrity + volume-clock bars (wash-trading detection Cong et al., liquidity jump/diffusion, Benford/roundness fake-volume tests, volume/dollar/imbalance/run bars as liquidity-adaptive clocks, trade-size distribution). · Data SSoT: axis-2-cascade-free/CANDIDATE-CATALOG.md · back to loop hub