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Closing reconciliation ยท DONE

Run evidence for the codec-foci instrument: an exploration gate executed over 437 cells, plus the selection write-up that reads its output.

What it measured
QuantityValueMeaning
Gate runcanary rate 1.000 over 437 cells, 2026-06-02the exploration gate passed
Cascade stages with an analytic null1 of 3two stages held
Published evidence payload17,518,849 bytesthe protected iterations.jsonl the published page links
What it produced
Carries forward

Nothing tracked here. Any deployment decision for the instrument belongs to the instrument's own promotion path, not to this run-evidence folder.

Why this status

Settled by OPERATOR RULING, 2026-08-14. Recorded honestly: the file evidence read as gate-passed but cascade-incomplete โ€” the selection page records no demonstrated incremental value over the existing baseline and two of three cascade stages held for lack of an analytic null. The operator rules the run evidence settled; the prior reading is preserved in the ledger.

'PASSED canary_rate=1.000 cells=437 2026-06-02T03:17:05Z' (GATE_VERDICT.txt) โ€” settled by operator ruling 2026-08-14.

Lifecycle status is process state, not a judgement of the findings. Results are stated as numbers with their uncertainty.

CODEC / FOCI orthogonality cascade โ€” what's grounded

Exploration Gate ยท clean leakage-free run ยท read-only ClickHouse ยท every number traces to iterations.jsonl

437cells100%canary0.881walk-forward Jaccard (clean)0.839non-canonical Jaccard0.0Type-I

Walk-forward โ€” leakage-free (discover-on-train / validate-on-held-out)

325 full-tier cells ยท mean Jaccard 0.881 (min 0.2) ยท stable (โ‰ฅ0.20) in 325/325 ยท PBO 0.0 ยท Type-I 0.0 ยท Type-II 0.052. Purge 200, embargo 10, fixed-width rolling train.

Discriminating cut (audit fix): the flagged set is dominated by ฯโ‰ˆ1 structural duplicates that persist under any split. Excluding them, the non-canonical mean Jaccard = 0.839 โ€” the honest measure of whether the cascade's discovered redundancies generalize.
regimecellsmean Jaccardmin
bear_2022160.9520.75
bull_2021640.8680.587
bull_2024640.8830.482
current_2026150.8970.673
range_2025590.9030.611
recovery_2023590.8520.494
stress_2022480.8750.503
by threshold100 dbps250 dbps500 dbps
mean Jaccard0.9670.9030.762

Spot-checks (traceable to real records): BTCUSDT@100/slice14 J=0.5779 (14 folds) ยท BTCUSDT@250/slice14 J=0.7613 (5 folds) ยท BTCUSDT@500/slice14 J=0.6304 (5 folds)

Exploration Gate โ€” agreement with known verdicts

pairprioragreerate
ofiโ†”turnover_imbalanceREDUNDANT437/437100%
agg_record_countโ†”individual_trade_countREDUNDANT428/43797%
vwapโ†”closeREDUNDANT437/437100%
kyle_lambda_proxyโ†”price_impactORTHOGONAL437/437100%
trade_intensityโ†”aggression_ratioORTHOGONAL437/437100%
vwap_close_deviationโ†”aggregation_densityORTHOGONAL437/437100%
kyle_lambda_proxyโ†”duration_usORTHOGONAL437/437100%
Held disagreement(s): agg_record_countโ†”individual_trade_count in 9 cells (threshold-sensitive, ฮพ straddles 0.80; carried to Selection).

Canary by symbol / threshold

symbolADAUSDTBNBUSDTBTCUSDTETHUSDTLTCUSDTXRPUSDT
flagged84/8484/8483/8339/3963/6384/84
threshold100250500750
flagged102/102126/126105/105104/104

Redundancy map (most-flagged pairs across the grid)

paircells flagged
ofi <-> turnover_imbalance437
close <-> vwap437
agg_record_count <-> individual_trade_count428
price_impact <-> volume395
sell_volume <-> volume202
buy_volume <-> volume194
price_impact <-> sell_volume92
buy_volume <-> price_impact90

Honest read โ€” in / out

In: the cascade reproduces every known verdict, catches the perfect duplicate in 100% of cells, never false-flags an orthogonal pair, and the verdict is regime-robust under a leakage-free walk-forward.
Out: alignment โ‰  value-add. Whether the cascade beats baseline, controls Type-I on unseen pairs, and survives the full Selection gates is Phase 2 (Selection). CODEC/O-info conditional/higher-order nulls and S4 gap-closure are HELD with stated reasons.

read-only ClickHouse ยท all artifacts under /home/nasimubd/ ยท S0-frozen params (candidates/codec-foci.md) ยท raw evidence iterations.jsonl. Deployment ๐Ÿ”’ BLOCKED on Terry.