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Closing reconciliation

Screened eight entropy-family measures of how disordered recent prices are, to see which add information the shipped features do not. Four came through clean everywhere, and the closing matrix revealed that several of them are near-duplicates of each other.

What it measured
QuantityValueMeaning
Candidates screened8, each across 207 cellsthe verdict is the worst cell in every case
Clean in every cell4 of 8 at max |rho| <= 0.85the grounded subset
Range across the family0.738 (bar_approximate_entropy) to 0.972 (bar_permutation_entropy)spread of worst-cell overlap
Dropped before screening2 (multiscale entropy, multiscale permutation entropy)N/tau collapse at a 200-bar window
Finish matrix8 candidates x 4 slices = 82 valid cellsinternal-redundancy check
Leave-one-out R2 range0.318 (shannon) to 0.972 (sample); ApEn-SampEn median |rho| 0.965the most externally orthogonal are the most internally redundant
How it ran
FiringWhat it did
01bar_shannon_entropy screened over 207 cells
02bar_permutation_entropy screened โ€” highest overlap of the family
03bar_weighted_permutation_entropy screened
06bar_dispersion_entropy screened
08bar_spectral_entropy screened โ€” work-list closed at 8 of 8
FinishCross-candidate matrix over 8 candidates x 4 regime-diverse slices
What it produced
Carries forward

Stage-2 (project-wide constant ratification for the survivors, plus the SVD re-promote) is Terry's, outside the loop. SVD entropy is already 208/208 clean but deferred on the parameterless axis; it re-promotes once the shared family embedding becomes a project-wide constant.

Why it is closed

'WORK-LIST COMPLETE (8/8). Cross-candidate matrix done. Cron 7f585874 deleted. LOOP DONE.' (LOOP_CONTRACT.md frontmatter: status DONE, iteration 8)

Lifecycle status is process state, not a judgement of the findings. Results are stated as numbers with their uncertainty. Generated between CLOSING-RECONCILIATION markers โ€” regenerate rather than edit.

Entropy family โ€” grounded so far

Orthogonality loop ยท 8 candidates ยท rolling 200-bar window ยท updated 2026-06-03 04:06 UTC

PASS (grounded)
4
WATCH
3
BAN
1
Pending
0

Per-candidate ledger

IterCandidateVerdictCellsMax |ฯ|
01bar_shannon_entropyWATCH2070.856
02bar_permutation_entropyBAN2070.972
03bar_weighted_permutation_entropyPASS2070.838
04bar_approximate_entropyPASS2070.738
05bar_sample_entropyWATCH2070.895
06bar_dispersion_entropyPASS2070.839
07bar_fisher_shannonWATCH2070.851
08bar_spectral_entropyPASS2070.771
โ€”bar_multiscale_entropyDROP (W=200)N/ฯ„ collapse on W=200: coarse series at ฯ„=20 is 10 samples, SampEn undefined.
โ€”bar_multiscale_permutation_entropyDROP (W=200)Same scale-grid N/ฯ„ collapse on W=200.

Verdict = worst across all valid bar sets. PASS requires |ฯ|โ‰ค0.85 + Rยฒโ‰ค0.85 + h_normโ‰ฅ0.05 in every cell. Axis-2 (parameterless) is resolved in Stage 2 โ€” promotion of the shared embedding to a project-wide constant โ€” AFTER this loop completes.

Family rollup for the entropy orthogonality loop. SVD entropy (already 208/208 PASS, DEFERRED on Axis-2) re-promotes at Stage 2 once the family embedding becomes a project constant.