Do the two flagged anomalies — the wold_R crypto inversion (conditional value ≈ 0.278, < 0.5; replicates) and the forex PBO 0.20 — disqualify any standing grounded result? Required trust basis: replication + PBO/CSCV.
Synthesised from committed verdicts: FULL-GRID-SCALE-VERDICT.md (wold_R cross-substrate behaviour), E2-BATTERY-VERDICT.md + E4-FINAL-VERDICT.md (forex PBO), S0-PRE-REGISTRATION.md + STATUS-GROUNDING-AND-THRESHOLDS.md (dispositions). No new measurement → leakage_guard.py N/A.
| Anomaly | What it is | Standing disposition | Trust basis |
|---|---|---|---|
wold_R crypto inversion | On crypto the metric inverts — conditional value ≈ 0.278 (< 0.5), and it replicates across runs. On forex it validated 19/19 (FULL-GRID), so the inversion is crypto-specific (a likely sign/orientation issue, mechanism not yet confirmed). | Already REPORTED-NOT-GATED (S0 disposition). It is not part of any gate, so the inversion changes no standing result. Do not use wold_R as a crypto gate until the inversion mechanism is understood. | Replication (0.278 reproduces); pre-registered S0 disposition "reported-not-gated". |
| forex PBO 0.20 | Probability of Backtest Overfitting drifted 0.00 → 0.20 (E2/E4 forex). The certified selection-bias bound is PBO ≤ 0.20, so 0.20 sits at the boundary (a watch, not a breach). | WATCH, and now PARKED. Forex is out of scope (crypto-only, operator directive). The forex PBO is an archived watch item — re-confirm only if/when forex is reintroduced. | CSCV / PBO (deflated-z family); E2-BATTERY + E4 committed. |
RESOLVED — NO, neither anomaly disqualifies a standing crypto result.
wold_R: it was never a gate (reported-not-gated by S0), so its crypto inversion cannot invalidate anything that is gated. It stays off the crypto gate set; the crypto inversion is an open mechanism question, not a disqualifier.The crypto FDR certificate (the stamped four; PBO 0.00 crypto, deflation z 22.15) is untouched by either anomaly.
This iteration does not "fix" wold_R (no re-derivation of its crypto sign) and does not re-pass the forex PBO. It documents their hold disposition from committed evidence. wold_R remains off the crypto gate; the forex PBO re-confirmation is deferred. No metric is promoted to a gate.
| Guard | Evidence |
|---|---|
| ClickHouse READ-ONLY (R1) | Read-only access present (--readonly=2); no query required — committed-artifact synthesis (0 queries, 0 writes). |
| Resource cap (R2) | No compute envelope launched. Box well under the load1 ≤ 24 watchdog. |
| Leakage discipline (R7) | No new measurement → leakage_guard.py N/A. wold_R 0.278 and forex PBO 0.20 are committed, replicated/CSCV-based numbers. |
| Write surfaces (R3) | Only this dashboard folder + PR #543 body. |
wold_R is ever wanted as a crypto gate, investigate the sign/orientation convention behind the 0.278 inversion and re-validate with a matched null. Re-run the forex PBO only on forex reintroduction.