Can these two detectors be promoted on top of the production orthogonality baseline {Pearson, Spearman, h_norm, MI}? Not yet โ both WATCH.
Decisive gate S4 = empty.
The only non-circular ground truth โ the exact identity
volume = buy_volume + sell_volume
(verified to 2.2e-16) โ is 100% Pearson-visible across all 110 cells (buyโsell
|ฯ|โฅ0.41, never <0.30). So no marginally-orthogonal redundant structure exists for GCM/O-info to flag
that the baseline does not already catch. GCM flags 232/330 construction pairs โ all baseline-visible.
Not a failure of the detectors; the test lacks a valid positive case. Confirmed by a 3-lens
adversarial review (0 material flaws).
| Gate | What it proves | GCM (A2) | O-info (A3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| S0 | Pre-registration freeze | frozen | frozen |
| S1 | Code correctness (mutation oracle, kill 1.0) | PASS | PASS |
| S2 | Calibration / effect-size separation 0.18 vs 0.97 | PASS | PASS |
| S3 | De-leaked OOS stability (Jaccard 0.635 / 0.772) | PASS | PASS |
| S4 | Value-add over baseline (0 instances) | WATCH | WATCH |
| S5 | Confidence intervals (jackknife) | reported | reported |
A non-empty, FDR-survived S4 on valid ground truth: (1) a nonlinear/ratio construction identity that is redundant-by-arithmetic yet marginally Pearson-orthogonal (verify the Rust feature definitions first), or (2) a Pearson-independent forward-return answer key. Deployment is Terry-gated regardless.