Why ARM

WATCH +0.0801

score +0.0801 sits in the WATCH band [+0.00, +0.20) of the published threshold table · snapshot 2026-09-03 17:00 UTC · point-in-time, never edited

Research and education only — not investment advice. Signal labels are research classifications, not buy/sell recommendations. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.

Component breakdown (C1–C9, confidence-weighted composite)

C1 Price momentum w=0.12
-0.676
C2 Volume confirmation w=0.08
+0.000
volume feed not wired — zero-confidence by design (C2 challenger accrues in a parallel shadow table)
C3 Sector velocity w=0.12
+0.607
C4 Macro regime w=0.15
+0.600
macro-regime input frozen as of 2026-05-18 with staleness disclosure, pending macro engine restoration
C5 Oil/rates/FX w=0.05
+0.000
C6 Event impact w=0.18
-0.373
C7 Peer correlation w=0.10
+0.131
C8 Cascade effect w=0.12
+0.000
C9 Model trust w=0.08
+0.000

Weights are the published composite weights; component scores are the current snapshot's stored values. C6 event impact carries the highest single weight by design — evidence is meant to correct price-only signals, not echo them.

Evidence coverage — the four terms

91
ECS (0–100)
22
accepted events, 90d
3.5
days since latest event
3
distinct event types
1
substrate active (0/1)

Evidence Coverage v1 (registered protocol): how much evidence stands under this classification — coverage, not prediction.

Latest accepted events

INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.53 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 3.5 days ago
Child Jason S 10400 shares @ $255.33 on 2026-08-27 ($2,655,432)
source filing ↗
OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.50 · direction +0 · 6-K · 24.7 days ago
NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that the Annual General Meeting of Arm Holdings plc (the “Company”) will be held on 9 September 2026 at 3:00 p.m. (British Summer Time) to consider, and if thought fit, pass
source filing ↗
OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.80 · direction +1 · 6-K · 36.7 days ago
Quarterly report for the three months ended June 30, 2026 . Incorporation by Reference This Report on Form 6-K shall be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the registration statements on Form S-8 of Arm Holdings plc
source filing ↗
EARNINGS_BEAT magnitude 0.80 · direction +1 · 6-K · 36.7 days ago
Combined with continued investment in R&D, non-GAAP EPS grew 29% year over year to $0.45, above the top end of our guidance range.
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 1.00 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 50.1 days ago
Grisenthwaite Richard Roy S 24339 shares @ $209.15 on 2026-05-18 ($5,090,502)
source filing ↗

Label history (last 30 snapshot days)

Point-in-time record, oldest → newest; colors follow the label legend on the home page. Never edited after the fact.

Story membership

No mega-story membership recorded for this name in the current evidence-geometry artifacts.

Research and education only — not investment advice. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page. Past results — in-sample or forward-tracked — do not predict future performance.

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Data through 2026-09-03 (last completed U.S. trading day) · regenerated daily after market close