Metadata-Version: 2.4
Name: amoc-utac
Version: 1.2.0
Summary: AMOC collapse early warning — GenesisAeon Package 18 (UTAC/CREP dynamical system)
Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/genesisaeon/amoc-utac
Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/genesisaeon/amoc-utac
Project-URL: Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21432660
Project-URL: Reference, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
Author-email: Johann Römer <j.roemer@mor-research.org>
License: MIT
License-File: LICENSE
Keywords: AMOC,CREP,GenesisAeon,UTAC,climate,early warning,ocean circulation,tipping point
Classifier: Development Status :: 3 - Alpha
Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
Classifier: License :: OSI Approved :: MIT License
Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.11
Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12
Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Atmospheric Science
Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Physics
Requires-Python: >=3.11
Requires-Dist: diamond-setup>=2.1.0
Requires-Dist: matplotlib>=3.9
Requires-Dist: numpy>=1.26
Requires-Dist: pyyaml>=6.0
Requires-Dist: rich>=13.7.0
Requires-Dist: scipy>=1.13
Requires-Dist: typer>=0.12.0
Provides-Extra: dev
Requires-Dist: mypy>=1.10.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pytest-cov>=5.0.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pytest>=8.0.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: ruff>=0.6.0; extra == 'dev'
Provides-Extra: notebooks
Requires-Dist: ipykernel>=6.0.0; extra == 'notebooks'
Requires-Dist: jupyter>=1.0.0; extra == 'notebooks'
Description-Content-Type: text/markdown

# amoc-utac

> GenesisAeon Package 18 — Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as UTAC System

<p align="center">
  <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19645351"><img src="https://zenodo.org/badge/DOI/10.5281/zenodo.19645351.svg" alt="DOI (GenesisAeon Whitepaper)"/></a>
  <a href="LICENSE"><img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-blue.svg" alt="MIT License"/></a>
  <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/docs-CC%20BY%204.0-lightblue.svg" alt="CC BY 4.0"/></a>
  <a href="https://github.com/GenesisAeon/genesis-os"><img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/part%20of-genesis--os-blueviolet" alt="Part of genesis-os"/></a>
  <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/UTAC-package%2018-orange" alt="Package 18"/>
</p>

**AMOC modelled as UTAC dynamical system** with physics-based early-warning from van Westen et al. (2024).

**Key result**: Γ_AMOC ≈ 0.251 (medium-CREP) → same universality point as neural criticality (η = 50 %).

## Installation

```bash
pip install amoc-utac
```

For development:

```bash
pip install -e ".[dev]"
```

## Quickstart

```bash
amoc-utac run --duration 120
amoc-utac tipping-estimate
amoc-utac zenodo-export
```

## Integration in genesis-os

```python
from genesis_os import GenesisOS
os = GenesisOS()
amoc = os.load_package(18)
results = amoc.run_cycle(duration_years=120)
```

## Benchmark

Validated against RAPID array, van Westen 2024 & Ditlevsen 2023.

## Falsifiable Prediction

AMOC crosses 50 % weakening (H* = 0.5 K) between 2045–2065.

## Scientific Context — Consensus vs. Single Studies (added 2026-08-01)

The Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen (2023) tipping-year estimate this package compares
against (central 2057, range 2025–2095) is a **real, published, but more
alarmist single study**, not the mainstream consensus. The **IPCC AR6 Working
Group I Summary for Policymakers (2021)** itself assesses an abrupt AMOC
collapse before 2100 as "very unlikely", stating **medium confidence that
there will not be an abrupt collapse before 2100**. Both positions are real
and are now surfaced together in `predict_tipping_year()`'s return value
(`ipcc_ar6_confidence_statement`, `ipcc_ar6_citation`, `consensus_note`) and
in the `tipping-estimate` CLI command's output table, so users see the
consensus baseline alongside this package's own (more alarmist) UTAC
estimate rather than only the latter.

## Role in the GenesisAeon Ecosystem

`amoc-utac` is **P18** in the GenesisAeon ecosystem, covering the
oceanography / AMOC tipping domain. It applies the UTAC-Logistic ODE and
CREP metrics to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, sharing
its criticality framework (Γ ≈ 0.251) with sibling packages across other
domains (e.g. neuroscience, heliophysics).

## Citation

[![DOI](https://zenodo.org/badge/DOI/10.5281/zenodo.21432660.svg)](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21432660)

## License

Code: MIT • Docs & Data: CC BY 4.0